Football · England League 2 · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers

Team pages: Gillingham · Bristol Rovers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Gillingham1.14

Bristol Rovers1.55

1X2

27% 28% 46%

Gillingham Draw Bristol Rovers

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gillingham 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDDDWW

Bristol Rovers 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Gillingham 3–1–2 Bristol Rovers (6 last)

Gillingham1-2Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers0-1Gillingham
Gillingham2-0Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers0-2Gillingham
Bristol Rovers1-1Gillingham
Gillingham0-1Bristol Rovers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gillingham 1492 · Bristol Rovers 1540

	Gillingham	Draw	Bristol Rovers
Our model	27%	28%	46%
Market	27%	28%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bristol Rovers (rating 1492 vs 1540).
H2H favours Gillingham: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gillingham	Bristol Rovers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	1.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.30

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.05

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.64
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.96 ★
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:58 +3’	3.40	3.30	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +168’	3.56	3.92	1.88
11:52 +107’	3.64▲	3.96▲	1.86▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gillingham 3–1–2 Bristol Rovers

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England League 2	Gillingham	1-2 HT 1-0	Bristol Rovers
08/11/25 England League 2	Bristol Rovers	0-1 HT 0-0	Gillingham
20/02/21 England League 1	Gillingham	2-0 HT 0-0	Bristol Rovers
02/12/20 England League 1	Bristol Rovers	0-2 HT 0-1	Gillingham
17/09/19 England League 1	Bristol Rovers	1-1 HT 1-0	Gillingham
12/03/19 England League 1	Gillingham	0-1 HT 0-0	Bristol Rovers

Standings · England League 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barnet	6	3	3	0	14	9	12
2	Bristol Rovers	6	4	0	2	12	8	12
3	York	6	3	2	1	13	8	11
4	Cheltenham	6	3	2	1	13	10	11
5	Walsall	6	2	4	0	8	4	10
6	Grimsby	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
7	Fleetwood Town	6	2	4	0	7	4	10
8	Crewe	6	2	4	0	6	4	10
9	Swindon	6	3	1	2	8	10	10
10	Tranmere	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
11	Gillingham	6	2	3	1	8	6	9
12	Chesterfield	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
13	Colchester	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
14	Oldham	6	2	1	3	8	7	7
15	Salford City	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
16	Rotherham	6	1	3	2	9	10	6
17	Northampton	6	1	3	2	3	5	6
18	Shrewsbury	6	2	0	4	4	10	6
19	Newport County	6	1	2	3	10	11	5
20	Exeter	6	1	2	3	4	5	5
21	Accrington Stanley	6	1	2	3	10	13	5
22	Port Vale	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
23	Crawley Town	6	1	1	4	6	11	4
24	Rochdale	6	1	1	4	5	10	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gillingham	Bristol Rovers
Tranmere	2-0 W	2-1 W
Grimsby	1-4 L	0-2 L
Cheltenham	1-2 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bristol Rovers (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gillingham

LLLWLDDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
05/09	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
01/09	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
29/08	Northampton England League 2	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
15/08	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-3	6	6	L
02/05	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
25/04	Barnet England League 2	1-5	2-6	3	4	L
18/04	Grimsby England League 2	0-1	1-4	5	3	L
14/04	Cheltenham England League 2	1-0	1-2	4	1	L

Bristol Rovers

WWWDLWWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
05/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
01/09	Colchester England League 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
29/08	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
22/08	Newport County England League 2	1-1	5-3	11	3	W
15/08	York England League 2	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/05	Notts County England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/04	Cheltenham England League 2	2-0	4-0	1	6	W
18/04	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	2-1	2	7	W
11/04	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	3-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bristol Rovers win (46%). Probabilities: Gillingham 27%, draw 28%, Bristol Rovers 46%.

How many goals are expected in Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Gillingham 1.14 · Bristol Rovers 1.55), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.