Football · England League 2 · 19/09, 16:00
Prediction: Crewe vs Shrewsbury
Team pages: Crewe · Shrewsbury
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Crewe1.57
Shrewsbury1.1
1X2
Crewe
Draw
Shrewsbury
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Crewe
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Shrewsbury
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crewe
4–2–0
Shrewsbury
(6 last)
- Shrewsbury0-4Crewe
- Crewe3-1Shrewsbury
- Crewe0-0Shrewsbury
- Shrewsbury1-1Crewe
- Shrewsbury0-1Crewe
- Crewe3-2Shrewsbury
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crewe 1500 · Shrewsbury 1432
| Crewe | Draw | Shrewsbury | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crewe (rating 1500 vs 1432).
- H2H favours Crewe: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crewe | Shrewsbury | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5.5 | 1.1 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crewe 4–2–0 Shrewsbury
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 England League 2 | Shrewsbury | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Crewe |
| 08/11/25 England League 2 | Crewe | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Shrewsbury |
| 15/01/22 England League 1 | Crewe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Shrewsbury |
| 11/09/21 England League 1 | Shrewsbury | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Crewe |
| 31/08/21 England EFL Trophy | Shrewsbury | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Crewe |
| 09/05/21 England League 1 | Crewe | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Shrewsbury |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Bristol Rovers | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 3 | York | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 5 | Walsall | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Fleetwood Town | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Crewe | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Swindon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 12 | Chesterfield | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Colchester | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 14 | Oldham | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Salford City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 16 | Rotherham | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| 17 | Northampton | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| 19 | Newport County | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 5 |
| 20 | Exeter | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 5 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 23 | Crawley Town | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crewe | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Crawley Town | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crewe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | York England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 22/08 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 10 | W |
| 02/05 | Cambridge Utd England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
Shrewsbury
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Northampton England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 01/09 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crewe vs Shrewsbury?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Crewe win (47%). Probabilities: Crewe 47%, draw 28%, Shrewsbury 25%.
How many goals are expected in Crewe vs Shrewsbury?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Crewe 1.57 · Shrewsbury 1.1), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Shrewsbury?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.