Football · England League 2 · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Barnet vs Fleetwood Town

Team pages: Barnet · Fleetwood Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Barnet1.92

Fleetwood Town1.27

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Barnet Draw Fleetwood Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Barnet 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

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Fleetwood Town 3-7-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Barnet 1–3 Fleetwood Town (4 last)

Fleetwood Town2-5Barnet
Fleetwood Town2-1Barnet
Barnet0-2Fleetwood Town
Barnet0-2Fleetwood Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barnet 1566 · Fleetwood Town 1545

	Barnet	Draw	Fleetwood Town
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fleetwood Town: 3-0-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barnet	Fleetwood Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.5	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.2	1.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.91
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.25 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:00 +2’	1.80	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +18’	1.76	3.88	4.18
11:09 +152’	1.74▼	3.91▲	4.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barnet 1–0–3 Fleetwood Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 England League 2	Fleetwood Town	2-5 HT 0-1	Barnet
01/11/25 England FA Cup	Fleetwood Town	2-1 HT 1-0	Barnet
02/08/25 England League 2	Barnet	0-2 HT 0-1	Fleetwood Town
10/11/19 England FA Cup	Barnet	0-2 HT 0-1	Fleetwood Town

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barnet	6	3	3	0	14	9	12
2	Bristol Rovers	6	4	0	2	12	8	12
3	York	6	3	2	1	13	8	11
4	Cheltenham	6	3	2	1	13	10	11
5	Walsall	6	2	4	0	8	4	10
6	Grimsby	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
7	Fleetwood Town	6	2	4	0	7	4	10
8	Crewe	6	2	4	0	6	4	10
9	Swindon	6	3	1	2	8	10	10
10	Tranmere	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
11	Gillingham	6	2	3	1	8	6	9
12	Chesterfield	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
13	Colchester	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
14	Oldham	6	2	1	3	8	7	7
15	Salford City	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
16	Rotherham	6	1	3	2	9	10	6
17	Northampton	6	1	3	2	3	5	6
18	Shrewsbury	6	2	0	4	4	10	6
19	Newport County	6	1	2	3	10	11	5
20	Exeter	6	1	2	3	4	5	5
21	Accrington Stanley	6	1	2	3	10	13	5
22	Port Vale	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
23	Crawley Town	6	1	1	4	6	11	4
24	Rochdale	6	1	1	4	5	10	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barnet	Fleetwood Town
Accrington Stanley	2-1 W	2-1 W
Chesterfield	3-3 D	1-0 W
Shrewsbury	3-1 W	2-0 W
Gillingham	6-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barnet

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
05/09	Chesterfield England League 2	2-1	3-3	8	7	D
01/09	Exeter England League 2	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
29/08	Cheltenham England League 2	1-0	2-2	11	4	D
22/08	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	3-1	9	1	W
15/08	Salford City England League 2	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
02/05	Harrogate Town England League 2	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
25/04	Gillingham England League 2	5-1	6-2	9	4	W
18/04	Notts County England League 2	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
11/04	Barrow England League 2	1-1	3-2	8	2	W

Fleetwood Town

WDDDWDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Newport County England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
05/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
01/09	Oldham England League 2	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
29/08	Grimsby England League 2	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
22/08	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
15/08	Chesterfield England League 2	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
02/05	Milton Keynes Dons England League 2	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
25/04	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
18/04	Chesterfield England League 2	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
11/04	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-0	2-1	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barnet vs Fleetwood Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barnet win (51%). Probabilities: Barnet 51%, draw 25%, Fleetwood Town 24%.

How many goals are expected in Barnet vs Fleetwood Town?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Barnet 1.92 · Fleetwood Town 1.27), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Barnet vs Fleetwood Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.