Football · England League 2 · 19/09, 16:00
Prediction: Grimsby vs Crawley Town
Team pages: Grimsby · Crawley Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Grimsby2.06
Crawley Town0.96
1X2
Grimsby
Draw
Crawley Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Grimsby
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Crawley Town
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Grimsby
3–1–2
Crawley Town
(6 last)
- Crawley Town0-2Grimsby
- Grimsby3-0Crawley Town
- Crawley Town2-0Grimsby
- Grimsby2-3Crawley Town
- Crawley Town1-1Grimsby
- Grimsby3-0Crawley Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grimsby 1571 · Crawley Town 1426
| Grimsby | Draw | Crawley Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grimsby (rating 1571 vs 1426).
- H2H favours Grimsby: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Grimsby | Crawley Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.3 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Grimsby 3–1–2 Crawley Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 England League 2 | Crawley Town | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Grimsby |
| 02/08/25 England League 2 | Grimsby | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Crawley Town |
| 27/04/24 England League 2 | Crawley Town | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Grimsby |
| 23/09/23 England League 2 | Grimsby | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Crawley Town |
| 28/03/23 England League 2 | Crawley Town | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Grimsby |
| 08/10/22 England League 2 | Grimsby | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Crawley Town |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Bristol Rovers | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 3 | York | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 5 | Walsall | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Fleetwood Town | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Crewe | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Swindon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 12 | Chesterfield | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Colchester | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 14 | Oldham | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Salford City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 16 | Rotherham | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| 17 | Northampton | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| 19 | Newport County | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 5 |
| 20 | Exeter | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 5 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 23 | Crawley Town | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Grimsby | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Cheltenham | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Accrington Stanley | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Salford City | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Grimsby (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grimsby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 01/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Exeter England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Salford City England League 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Swindon England League 2 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Crawley Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 01/09 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Rochdale England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 15/08 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 02/05 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grimsby vs Crawley Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Grimsby win (62%). Probabilities: Grimsby 62%, draw 22%, Crawley Town 16%.
How many goals are expected in Grimsby vs Crawley Town?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Grimsby 2.06 · Crawley Town 0.96), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Crawley Town?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.