Football · England League 1 · 10/09, 21:00
Prediction: Stevenage vs Luton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Stevenage1.27
Luton1.54
1X2
Stevenage
Draw
Luton
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Stevenage
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Luton
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stevenage
2–2–2
Luton
(6 last)
- Luton2-1Stevenage
- Stevenage2-0Luton
- Stevenage2-2Luton
- Stevenage1-1Luton
- Luton7-1Stevenage
- Luton0-2Stevenage
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stevenage 1499 · Luton 1548
| Stevenage | Draw | Luton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 27% | 42% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luton (rating 1499 vs 1548).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stevenage | Luton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 2.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.1 | 2.7 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stevenage 2–2–2 Luton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 England League 1 | Luton | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Stevenage |
| 04/10/25 England League 1 | Stevenage | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Luton |
| 10/08/21 England EFL Cup | Stevenage | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Luton |
| 10/02/18 England League 2 | Stevenage | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Luton |
| 14/10/17 England League 2 | Luton | 7-1 HT 3-1 | Stevenage |
| 11/03/17 England League 2 | Luton | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Stevenage |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheff Wed | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Stockport | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Bradford | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Burton Albion | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 8 |
| 6 | Cambridge Utd | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | Luton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| 8 | Reading | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Leyton Orient | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Oxford Utd | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| 11 | Blackpool | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| 12 | Notts County | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 13 | Plymouth | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 14 | Barnsley | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 15 | Stevenage | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Mansfield | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 17 | Leicester | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 4 |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 21 | Bromley | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 22 | Doncaster | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 23 | Wycombe | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| 24 | Wigan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stevenage | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 5-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Stockport | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stevenage
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Peterborough England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 13/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 21/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
Luton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 02/09 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-3 | 2-5 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Notts County England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 15/08 | Reading England League 1 |
1-3 | 4-3 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Bolton England League 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 21/04 | Rotherham England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 15/04 | Northampton England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stevenage vs Luton?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Luton win (42%). Probabilities: Stevenage 30%, draw 28%, Luton 42%.
How many goals are expected in Stevenage vs Luton?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Stevenage 1.27 · Luton 1.54), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Luton?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.