Football · England League 1 · 19/09, 13:30

Prediction: Burton Albion vs Mansfield

Team pages: Burton Albion · Mansfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Burton Albion1.46

Mansfield1.35

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Burton Albion Draw Mansfield

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Burton Albion 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDDWLWDL

Mansfield 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWLLD

Head-to-head

Burton Albion 2–3–1 Mansfield (6 last)

Mansfield0-0Burton Albion
Burton Albion2-1Mansfield
Burton Albion1-1Mansfield
Mansfield3-3Burton Albion
Burton Albion2-1Mansfield
Burton Albion1-2Mansfield

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Burton Albion 1494 · Mansfield 1490

	Burton Albion	Draw	Mansfield
Our model	39%	28%	34%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Burton Albion: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Burton Albion	Mansfield
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.4	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.30

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.10

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.56 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.40
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:44 +10’	2.38	3.30	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +161’	2.58	3.40	2.68
01:25 +57’	2.56▼	3.40	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Burton Albion 2–3–1 Mansfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 England League 1	Mansfield	0-0 HT 0-0	Burton Albion
02/08/25 England League 1	Burton Albion	2-1 HT 1-0	Mansfield
01/03/25 England League 1	Burton Albion	1-1 HT 1-0	Mansfield
17/08/24 England League 1	Mansfield	3-3 HT 2-1	Burton Albion
21/11/23 England EFL Trophy	Burton Albion	2-1 HT 1-1	Mansfield
12/11/19 England EFL Trophy	Burton Albion	1-2 HT 1-2	Mansfield

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sheff Wed	6	4	1	1	13	6	13
2	Huddersfield	6	3	3	0	10	4	12
3	Bradford	6	4	0	2	6	4	12
4	Cambridge Utd	6	3	2	1	11	9	11
5	Oxford Utd	5	3	1	1	12	6	10
6	Plymouth	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
7	AFC Wimbledon	6	3	1	2	5	7	10
8	Stockport	6	3	0	3	16	10	9
9	Stevenage	6	2	3	1	11	7	9
10	Blackpool	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
11	Burton Albion	6	2	2	2	10	10	8
12	Luton	6	2	2	2	12	13	8
13	Leicester	6	2	2	2	8	10	8
14	Reading	5	2	1	2	12	7	7
15	Leyton Orient	6	2	1	3	12	9	7
16	Notts County	6	1	4	1	7	7	7
17	Mansfield	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
18	Barnsley	6	2	1	3	6	11	7
19	Wycombe	6	1	3	2	10	14	6
20	Milton Keynes Dons	6	0	5	1	8	10	5
21	Peterborough	6	1	2	3	4	10	5
22	Bromley	6	1	2	3	6	17	5
23	Wigan	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
24	Doncaster	6	0	3	3	6	9	3

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Burton Albion

WDDDDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Oxford Utd England League 1	0-0	0-3	5	2	L
05/09	Cambridge Utd England League 1	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
02/09	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
29/08	Notts County England League 1	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
22/08	Leicester England League 1	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
15/08	Stevenage England League 1	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
02/05	Leyton Orient England League 1	1-1	2-2	1	2	D
25/04	Exeter England League 1	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
19/04	Peterborough England League 1	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
11/04	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	0-0	1-0	9	1	W

Mansfield

WWDWWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Huddersfield England League 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
05/09	Bradford England League 1	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
02/09	Reading England League 1	0-3	0-5	2	1	L
30/08	Luton England League 1	3-0	5-2	4	6	W
22/08	Peterborough England League 1	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
15/08	Doncaster England League 1	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
02/05	Cardiff England League 1	3-0	5-4	6	3	W
28/04	Peterborough England League 1	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
25/04	Huddersfield England League 1	2-0	4-1	3	3	W
21/04	Stockport England League 1	0-0	1-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Burton Albion vs Mansfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Burton Albion win (39%). Probabilities: Burton Albion 39%, draw 28%, Mansfield 33%.

How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs Mansfield?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Burton Albion 1.46 · Mansfield 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Mansfield?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.