Football · England League 1 · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Luton vs Bradford

Team pages: Luton · Bradford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Luton1.48

Bradford1.12

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Luton Draw Bradford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Luton 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLWDL

Bradford 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Luton 3–1 Bradford (4 last)

Luton2-1Bradford
Bradford2-1Luton
Bradford0-1Luton
Luton4-0Bradford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Luton 1538 · Bradford 1535

	Luton	Draw	Bradford
Our model	44%	28%	27%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Luton: 3-0-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Luton	Bradford
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	0.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	3.3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.07
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:00	2.05	3.30	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +168’	2.10	3.75	3.19
01:24 +62’	2.07▼	3.76▲	3.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Luton 3–0–1 Bradford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England League 1	Luton	2-1 HT 1-0	Bradford
16/08/25 England League 1	Bradford	2-1 HT 1-0	Luton
12/03/19 England League 1	Bradford	0-1 HT 0-1	Luton
27/11/18 England League 1	Luton	4-0 HT 3-0	Bradford

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sheff Wed	6	4	1	1	13	6	13
2	Huddersfield	6	3	3	0	10	4	12
3	Bradford	6	4	0	2	6	4	12
4	Cambridge Utd	6	3	2	1	11	9	11
5	Oxford Utd	5	3	1	1	12	6	10
6	Plymouth	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
7	AFC Wimbledon	6	3	1	2	5	7	10
8	Stockport	6	3	0	3	16	10	9
9	Stevenage	6	2	3	1	11	7	9
10	Blackpool	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
11	Burton Albion	6	2	2	2	10	10	8
12	Luton	6	2	2	2	12	13	8
13	Leicester	6	2	2	2	8	10	8
14	Reading	5	2	1	2	12	7	7
15	Leyton Orient	6	2	1	3	12	9	7
16	Notts County	6	1	4	1	7	7	7
17	Mansfield	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
18	Barnsley	6	2	1	3	6	11	7
19	Wycombe	6	1	3	2	10	14	6
20	Milton Keynes Dons	6	0	5	1	8	10	5
21	Peterborough	6	1	2	3	4	10	5
22	Bromley	6	1	2	3	6	17	5
23	Wigan	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
24	Doncaster	6	0	3	3	6	9	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Luton	Bradford
Mansfield	2-5 L	1-0 W
Notts County	2-2 D	1-0 W
Bolton	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bradford (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Luton

DWWWWDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Stevenage England League 1	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
05/09	Leyton Orient England League 1	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
02/09	Stockport England League 1	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
30/08	Mansfield England League 1	0-3	2-5	7	6	L
22/08	Notts County England League 1	1-1	2-2	8	8	D
15/08	Reading England League 1	1-3	4-3	2	3	W
02/05	Bolton England League 1	1-2	3-2	3	7	W
25/04	Barnsley England League 1	1-1	2-1	9	6	W
21/04	Rotherham England League 1	2-0	2-0	6	3	W
18/04	Mansfield England League 1	1-2	2-2	9	4	D

Bradford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Notts County England League 1	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
05/09	Mansfield England League 1	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
01/09	Cambridge Utd England League 1	0-0	1-2	12	1	L
29/08	Plymouth England League 1	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
20/08	Sheff Wed England League 1	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
15/08	Peterborough England League 1	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
14/05	Bolton England League 1	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
09/05	Bolton England League 1	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
02/05	Exeter England League 1	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
25/04	Bolton England League 1	0-0	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Luton vs Bradford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Luton win (44%). Probabilities: Luton 44%, draw 28%, Bradford 28%.

How many goals are expected in Luton vs Bradford?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Luton 1.48 · Bradford 1.12), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Luton vs Bradford?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.