Football · England League 1 · 19/09, 16:00
Prediction: Blackpool vs Plymouth
Team pages: Blackpool · Plymouth
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.11Total
Blackpool1.54
Plymouth1.57
1X2
Blackpool
Draw
Plymouth
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Blackpool
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Plymouth
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Blackpool
1–2–3
Plymouth
(6 last)
- Blackpool0-4Plymouth
- Plymouth1-0Blackpool
- Blackpool2-2Plymouth
- Plymouth1-0Blackpool
- Blackpool2-2Plymouth
- Plymouth0-1Blackpool
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Blackpool 1498 · Plymouth 1564
| Blackpool | Draw | Plymouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market | 36% | 26% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plymouth (rating 1498 vs 1564).
- H2H favours Plymouth: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Blackpool | Plymouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6 | 3 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Blackpool 1–2–3 Plymouth
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 England League 1 | Blackpool | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Plymouth |
| 23/08/25 England League 1 | Plymouth | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Blackpool |
| 27/03/21 England League 1 | Blackpool | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Plymouth |
| 12/09/20 England League 1 | Plymouth | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Blackpool |
| 30/03/19 England League 1 | Blackpool | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Plymouth |
| 15/09/18 England League 1 | Plymouth | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Blackpool |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheff Wed | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Bradford | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Cambridge Utd | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 5 | Oxford Utd | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Plymouth | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Stockport | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 9 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Blackpool | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 8 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 12 | Luton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 8 |
| 13 | Leicester | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 14 | Reading | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 7 |
| 16 | Notts County | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 17 | Mansfield | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| 19 | Wycombe | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 6 |
| 20 | Milton Keynes Dons | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| 22 | Bromley | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 5 |
| 23 | Wigan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
| 24 | Doncaster | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Blackpool | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Stockport | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Wycombe | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blackpool
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Bromley England League 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Reading England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/09 | Barnsley England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 29/08 | Peterborough England League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 22/08 | Stockport England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Wycombe England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Reading England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Wycombe England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
Plymouth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Barnsley England League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Leicester England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Bradford England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Wycombe England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Northampton England League 1 |
2-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Port Vale England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Bradford England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 18/04 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Blackpool vs Plymouth?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Plymouth win (38%). Probabilities: Blackpool 36%, draw 26%, Plymouth 38%.
How many goals are expected in Blackpool vs Plymouth?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Blackpool 1.54 · Plymouth 1.57), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Blackpool vs Plymouth?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.