Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 28/08, 17:00

Prediction: ND Slovan Ljubljana vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Team pages: ND Slovan Ljubljana · ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

ND Slovan Ljubljana1.36

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1.68

1X2

30% 26% 44%

ND Slovan Ljubljana Draw ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Slovan Ljubljana 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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ND Ilirija Ljubljana 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

ND Slovan Ljubljana 2–2–0 ND Ilirija Ljubljana (4 last)

ND Slovan Ljubljana2-1ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana1-2ND Slovan Ljubljana
ND Slovan Ljubljana1-1ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana0-0ND Slovan Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1505 · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1517

	ND Slovan Ljubljana	Draw	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Our model	30%	26%	44%
Market	30%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ND Slovan Ljubljana: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Slovan Ljubljana	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.40

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +3’	3.00	3.40	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Slovan Ljubljana 2–2–0 ND Ilirija Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	2-1 HT 2-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
14/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1-2 HT 0-1	ND Slovan Ljubljana
03/05/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-1 HT 1-1	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
19/10/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-0 HT 0-0	ND Slovan Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	3	3	0	0	10	0	9
2	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	3	3	0	0	9	0	9
3	ND Beltinci	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
4	NK Vrhnika	3	2	0	1	4	2	6
5	NK Bilje	3	2	0	1	6	6	6
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	3	2	0	1	6	6	6
7	NK Jesenice	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
8	NK Bistrica	3	1	1	1	4	7	4
9	NK Krsko	3	1	1	1	3	8	4
10	Jadran Dekani	3	1	0	2	3	3	3
11	NK Triglav Kranj	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	NK Rudar Velenje	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
13	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	3	1	0	2	2	6	3
14	NK Krka	3	0	1	2	2	6	1
15	NK Brezice	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
16	ND Dravinja	3	0	0	3	1	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Slovan Ljubljana	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
NK Krka	3-2 W	4-1 W
ND Beltinci	3-1 W	1-3 L
NK Bistrica	0-1 L	6-0 W
ND Gorica	0-3 L	0-1 L
ND Dravinja	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ND Ilirija Ljubljana (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Slovan Ljubljana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	0	5	W
15/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	3-1	1	7	W
08/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	8	7	L
23/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
17/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	5-1	3	6	W
10/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-4	1-5	3	4	L
07/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
30/04	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/04	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
19/04	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-2	3	8	L

ND Ilirija Ljubljana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
15/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	6-0	2	1	W
09/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
22/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	1-3	4	4	L
15/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
09/05	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
06/05	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
30/04	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
24/04	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	4-1	5	3	W
17/04	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Slovan Ljubljana vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ND Ilirija Ljubljana win (44%). Probabilities: ND Slovan Ljubljana 30%, draw 26%, ND Ilirija Ljubljana 44%.

How many goals are expected in ND Slovan Ljubljana vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

The model expects 3.04 goals (ND Slovan Ljubljana 1.36 · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1.68), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Slovan Ljubljana vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.