Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: NK Krka vs NK Jesenice

Team pages: NK Krka · NK Jesenice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

NK Krka1.9

NK Jesenice1.54

1X2

45% 25% 30%

NK Krka Draw NK Jesenice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Krka 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLDLLL

NK Jesenice 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLDWW

Head-to-head

NK Krka 2–0 NK Jesenice (2 last)

NK Krka3-2NK Jesenice
NK Jesenice0-3NK Krka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Krka 1466 · NK Jesenice 1435

	NK Krka	Draw	NK Jesenice
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Krka: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Krka	NK Jesenice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.4	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.8	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +12’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Krka 2–0–0 NK Jesenice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	3-2 HT 1-2	NK Jesenice
08/11/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Jesenice	0-3 HT 0-1	NK Krka

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	4	4	0	0	11	0	12
2	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	4	3	0	1	10	2	9
3	ND Slovan Ljubljana	4	3	0	1	8	7	9
4	NK Jesenice	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
5	NK Bistrica	4	2	1	1	6	7	7
6	NK Triglav Kranj	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
7	ND Beltinci	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
8	NK Rudar Velenje	4	2	0	2	7	5	6
9	NK Vrhnika	4	2	0	2	4	4	6
10	NK Bilje	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	4	2	0	2	5	8	6
12	NK Krsko	4	1	2	1	3	8	5
13	Jadran Dekani	4	1	1	2	3	3	4
14	NK Krka	4	0	1	3	4	9	1
15	NK Brezice	3	0	0	3	2	5	0
16	ND Dravinja	4	0	0	4	2	10	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Krka	NK Jesenice
ND Slovan Ljubljana	2-3 L	0-1 L
NK Rudar Velenje	0-3 L	2-1 W
Jadran Dekani	3-4 L	2-0 W
NK Krsko	4-0 W	1-1 D
ND Dravinja	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Jesenice (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Krka

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-3	6	4	L
21/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	11	5	L
14/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
07/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
23/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-4	–	–	L
15/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	3-2	8	3	W
10/05	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
06/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
30/04	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/04	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	1-4	4	3	L

NK Jesenice

LLLWLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-1	4	6	W
21/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
14/08	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
23/05	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-3	5	3	L
10/05	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
07/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
30/04	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
26/04	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-4	1-8	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Krka vs NK Jesenice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Krka win (45%). Probabilities: NK Krka 45%, draw 25%, NK Jesenice 30%.

How many goals are expected in NK Krka vs NK Jesenice?

The model expects 3.44 goals (NK Krka 1.9 · NK Jesenice 1.54), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Krka vs NK Jesenice?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.