Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 04/09, 18:00

Prediction: NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Bistrica

Team pages: NK Triglav Kranj · NK Bistrica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

NK Triglav Kranj2.05

NK Bistrica1.28

1X2

54% 24% 22%

NK Triglav Kranj Draw NK Bistrica

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Triglav Kranj 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLDWLW

NK Bistrica 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDLWW

Head-to-head

NK Triglav Kranj 4–2 NK Bistrica (6 last)

NK Triglav Kranj0-4NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica4-3NK Triglav Kranj
NK Bistrica2-3NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj3-1NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica1-3NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj2-1NK Bistrica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Triglav Kranj 1555 · NK Bistrica 1512

	NK Triglav Kranj	Draw	NK Bistrica
Our model	54%	23%	23%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Triglav Kranj (rating 1555 vs 1512).
H2H favours NK Triglav Kranj: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Triglav Kranj	NK Bistrica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.70

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 15:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.65▲	Bet365 1.65
X	4.50 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.78
2	6.50 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.18 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +1’	1.33	4.50	6.50
21:00 +10’	1.44▲	4.20▼	5.25▼
07:12 +4’	1.53▲	3.90▼	4.75▼
11:19 +3’	1.57▲	3.80▼	4.50▼
14:51 +31’	1.65▲	3.70▼	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:21	1.52	3.95	4.59
07:16 +1’	1.51▼	3.99▲	4.69▲
10:04 +1’	1.61▲	3.78▼	4.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Triglav Kranj 4–0–2 NK Bistrica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	0-4 HT 0-1	NK Bistrica
09/11/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	4-3 HT 2-2	NK Triglav Kranj
06/04/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	2-3 HT 1-1	NK Triglav Kranj
21/09/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	3-1 HT 2-1	NK Bistrica
17/03/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	1-3 HT 0-1	NK Triglav Kranj
03/09/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	2-1 HT 1-1	NK Bistrica

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	4	4	0	0	11	0	12
2	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	4	3	0	1	10	2	9
3	ND Slovan Ljubljana	4	3	0	1	8	7	9
4	NK Jesenice	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
5	NK Bistrica	4	2	1	1	6	7	7
6	NK Triglav Kranj	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
7	ND Beltinci	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
8	NK Rudar Velenje	4	2	0	2	7	5	6
9	NK Vrhnika	4	2	0	2	4	4	6
10	NK Bilje	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	4	2	0	2	5	8	6
12	NK Krsko	4	1	2	1	3	8	5
13	Jadran Dekani	4	1	1	2	3	3	4
14	NK Krka	4	0	1	3	4	9	1
15	NK Brezice	3	0	0	3	2	5	0
16	ND Dravinja	4	0	0	4	2	10	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Triglav Kranj	NK Bistrica
NK Vrhnika	1-0 W	2-0 W
NK Nafta 1903	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Triglav Kranj

WWWWWLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
14/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
22/05	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
16/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	3	7	L
10/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
06/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
30/04	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
24/04	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	6	0	W
18/04	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	3	W

NK Bistrica

LWLLWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
22/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	4-1	5	7	W
15/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-6	3	1	L
07/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
23/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/05	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	2	7	W
09/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-4	4	6	L
06/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
30/04	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
25/04	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Bistrica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Triglav Kranj win (54%). Probabilities: NK Triglav Kranj 54%, draw 24%, NK Bistrica 22%.

How many goals are expected in NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Bistrica?

The model expects 3.33 goals (NK Triglav Kranj 2.05 · NK Bistrica 1.28), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Bistrica?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.