Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 05/09, 17:00

Prediction: NK Bilje vs ND Slovan Ljubljana

Team pages: NK Bilje · ND Slovan Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

NK Bilje1.51

ND Slovan Ljubljana1.33

1X2

41% 27% 32%

NK Bilje Draw ND Slovan Ljubljana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bilje 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWWLL

ND Slovan Ljubljana 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLLWWW

Head-to-head

NK Bilje 0–1–3 ND Slovan Ljubljana (4 last)

NK Bilje0-1ND Slovan Ljubljana
ND Slovan Ljubljana2-1NK Bilje
NK Bilje0-0ND Slovan Ljubljana
ND Slovan Ljubljana1-0NK Bilje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bilje 1472 · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1542

	NK Bilje	Draw	ND Slovan Ljubljana
Our model	40%	27%	32%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ND Slovan Ljubljana (rating 1472 vs 1542).
H2H favours ND Slovan Ljubljana: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bilje	ND Slovan Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:05 +4’	2.20	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bilje 0–1–3 ND Slovan Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	0-1 HT 0-1	ND Slovan Ljubljana
15/08/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	2-1 HT 1-1	NK Bilje
17/05/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	0-0 HT 0-0	ND Slovan Ljubljana
09/11/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Bilje

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	4	4	0	0	11	0	12
2	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	4	3	0	1	10	2	9
3	ND Slovan Ljubljana	4	3	0	1	8	7	9
4	NK Jesenice	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
5	NK Bistrica	4	2	1	1	6	7	7
6	NK Triglav Kranj	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
7	ND Beltinci	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
8	NK Rudar Velenje	4	2	0	2	7	5	6
9	NK Vrhnika	4	2	0	2	4	4	6
10	NK Bilje	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	4	2	0	2	5	8	6
12	NK Krsko	4	1	2	1	3	8	5
13	Jadran Dekani	4	1	1	2	3	3	4
14	NK Krka	4	0	1	3	4	9	1
15	NK Brezice	3	0	0	3	2	5	0
16	ND Dravinja	4	0	0	4	2	10	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bilje	ND Slovan Ljubljana
NK Bistrica	1-4 L	0-1 L
ND Beltinci	3-1 W	3-1 W
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-1 L	2-1 W
Tabor Sezana	2-1 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ND Slovan Ljubljana (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Bilje

WLLLWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	3	3	L
22/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-4	2	7	L
16/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
08/08	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
22/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
16/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/05	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
06/05	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
30/04	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
26/04	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	–	–	W

ND Slovan Ljubljana

LDWLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	0	5	W
15/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	3-1	1	7	W
08/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	8	7	L
23/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
17/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	5-1	3	6	W
10/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-4	1-5	3	4	L
07/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
30/04	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/04	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bilje vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Bilje win (41%). Probabilities: NK Bilje 41%, draw 27%, ND Slovan Ljubljana 32%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bilje vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

The model expects 2.83 goals (NK Bilje 1.51 · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1.33), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bilje vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.