Football · Scotland Premiership · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Dundee Utd vs Falkirk

Team pages: Dundee Utd · Falkirk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Dundee Utd1.62

Falkirk1.25

1X2

45% 27% 28%

Dundee Utd Draw Falkirk

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dundee Utd 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDDLLW

Falkirk 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLLDL

Head-to-head

Dundee Utd 1–1–4 Falkirk (6 last)

Falkirk2-1Dundee Utd
Falkirk2-3Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd0-3Falkirk
Falkirk2-2Dundee Utd
Falkirk2-0Dundee Utd
Falkirk4-2Dundee Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dundee Utd 1468 · Falkirk 1475

	Dundee Utd	Draw	Falkirk
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	45%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Falkirk: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dundee Utd	Falkirk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +5’	2.05	3.50	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundee Utd 1–1–4 Falkirk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Scotland FA Cup	Falkirk	2-1 HT 2-1	Dundee Utd
14/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Falkirk	2-3 HT 1-1	Dundee Utd
22/11/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	0-3 HT 0-2	Falkirk
03/08/25 Scotland Premiership	Falkirk	2-2 HT 0-1	Dundee Utd
13/07/24 Scotland League Cup	Falkirk	2-0 HT 0-0	Dundee Utd
17/11/23 Scotland League Challenge Cup	Falkirk	4-2 HT 1-2	Dundee Utd

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
2	Hearts	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
3	Dundee	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
4	St Mirren	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Motherwell	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	Dundee Utd	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
7	Hibernian	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	St Johnstone	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
9	Aberdeen	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
10	Rangers	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	Falkirk	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
12	Kilmarnock	3	0	0	3	4	13	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dundee Utd	Falkirk
Hearts	0-4 L	0-3 L
Rangers	1-1 D	2-5 L
St Mirren	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Dundee Utd (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dundee Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	4-0	5	6	W
22/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
09/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
31/07	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
12/05	Livingston Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
09/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
02/05	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	8	1	L
26/04	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
11/04	Livingston Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-2	4	0	W

Falkirk

WLLWLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
01/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
16/05	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-3	2-5	7	3	L
13/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
09/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-3	1-3	6	1	L
02/05	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	2	9	W
25/04	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
12/04	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-1	3-6	2	6	L
04/04	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	2-1	3-2	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dundee Utd vs Falkirk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dundee Utd win (45%). Probabilities: Dundee Utd 45%, draw 27%, Falkirk 28%.

How many goals are expected in Dundee Utd vs Falkirk?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Dundee Utd 1.62 · Falkirk 1.25), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dundee Utd vs Falkirk?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.