Football · Scotland Premiership · 05/09, 21:00

Prediction: St Mirren vs Celtic

Team pages: St Mirren · Celtic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

St Mirren0.88

Celtic2.3

1X2

12% 20% 68%

St Mirren Draw Celtic

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

St Mirren 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWDWWD

Celtic 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

St Mirren 1–2–3 Celtic (6 last)

Celtic2-2St Mirren
Celtic1-0St Mirren
St Mirren3-1Celtic
St Mirren0-1Celtic
Celtic1-0St Mirren
Celtic1-1St Mirren

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Mirren 1545 · Celtic 1623

	St Mirren	Draw	Celtic
Our model	12%	20%	68%
Market	12%	21%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celtic (rating 1545 vs 1623).
H2H favours Celtic: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Mirren	Celtic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	2.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6	2.9 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

18.00

X4.50

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:43 +2’	8.00	4.50	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Mirren 1–2–3 Celtic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Scotland FA Cup	Celtic	2-2 HT 2-0	St Mirren
11/04/26 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	1-0 HT 1-0	St Mirren
14/12/25 Scotland League Cup	St Mirren	3-1 HT 1-1	Celtic
22/11/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-1 HT 0-0	Celtic
03/08/25 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	1-0 HT 0-0	St Mirren
17/05/25 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	1-1 HT 0-0	St Mirren

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
2	Hearts	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
3	Dundee	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
4	St Mirren	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Motherwell	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	Dundee Utd	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
7	Hibernian	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	St Johnstone	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
9	Aberdeen	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
10	Rangers	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	Falkirk	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
12	Kilmarnock	3	0	0	3	4	13	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Mirren	Celtic
Motherwell	3-3 D	3-2 W
Falkirk	2-0 W	2-1 W
Kilmarnock	0-3 L	5-1 W
Dundee	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Celtic (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Mirren

WLLLLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	3-2	3-3	7	4	D
08/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/05	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
12/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
09/05	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
02/05	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
25/04	Livingston Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
11/04	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
04/04	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	8	4	W

Celtic

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
09/08	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	5-1	7	1	W
03/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	9	9	W
13/05	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
10/05	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	1	8	W
03/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	13	7	W
25/04	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-1	9	5	W
11/04	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/04	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Mirren vs Celtic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Celtic win (68%). Probabilities: St Mirren 12%, draw 20%, Celtic 68%.

How many goals are expected in St Mirren vs Celtic?

The model expects 3.18 goals (St Mirren 0.88 · Celtic 2.3), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St Mirren vs Celtic?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.