Football · Scotland Premiership · 03/09, 20:45

Prediction: Hibernian vs Hearts

Team pages: Hibernian · Hearts

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Hibernian1.48

Hearts1.45

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Hibernian Draw Hearts

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hibernian 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWWLLW

Hearts 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWLLW

Head-to-head

Hibernian 3–3 Hearts (6 last)

Hibernian1-2Hearts
Hearts1-0Hibernian
Hibernian3-2Hearts
Hearts1-0Hibernian
Hibernian2-1Hearts
Hearts1-2Hibernian

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hibernian 1541 · Hearts 1540

	Hibernian	Draw	Hearts
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	37%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hibernian	Hearts
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.7	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:39 +1’	2.50	3.50	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hibernian 3–0–3 Hearts

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Scotland Premiership	Hibernian	1-2 HT 1-0	Hearts
10/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	1-0 HT 0-0	Hibernian
27/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Hibernian	3-2 HT 2-0	Hearts
04/10/25 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	1-0 HT 0-0	Hibernian
02/03/25 Scotland Premiership	Hibernian	2-1 HT 1-1	Hearts
26/12/24 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	1-2 HT 1-1	Hibernian

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Dundee	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
3	St Mirren	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	Motherwell	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Hearts	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
6	St Johnstone	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
7	Hibernian	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Aberdeen	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
9	Rangers	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
10	Falkirk	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	Dundee Utd	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
12	Kilmarnock	2	0	0	2	4	9	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hibernian	Hearts
Rangers	2-1 W	2-1 W
Motherwell	1-2 L	1-1 D
Falkirk	3-1 W	3-0 W
Celtic	1-2 L	1-3 L
Aberdeen	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hearts (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hibernian

DWLLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
02/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
16/05	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
13/05	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
09/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	3-0	3-1	5	1	W
03/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-2	0	7	L
26/04	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	0	9	L
11/04	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
04/04	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/03	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	4	7	D

Hearts

WDWWWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
01/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
16/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-3	6	9	L
13/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
09/05	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
04/05	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
26/04	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	11	9	W
11/04	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-0	3-1	6	3	W
05/04	Livingston Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
21/03	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hibernian vs Hearts?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hibernian win (37%). Probabilities: Hibernian 37%, draw 27%, Hearts 36%.

How many goals are expected in Hibernian vs Hearts?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Hibernian 1.48 · Hearts 1.45), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Hearts?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.