Football · Scotland Premiership · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Rangers vs Motherwell

Team pages: Rangers · Motherwell

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Rangers1.96

Motherwell0.93

1X2

61% 23% 16%

Rangers Draw Motherwell

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Rangers 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWDLW

Motherwell 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDLWWD

Head-to-head

Rangers 1–3–2 Motherwell (6 last)

Rangers2-3Motherwell
Motherwell1-1Rangers
Rangers1-0Motherwell
Motherwell1-1Rangers
Rangers1-2Motherwell
Motherwell2-2Rangers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rangers 1528 · Motherwell 1514

	Rangers	Draw	Motherwell
Our model	61%	23%	16%
Market	61%	23%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Motherwell: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rangers	Motherwell
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.7	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +7’	1.53	4.00	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rangers 1–3–2 Motherwell

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	2-3 HT 0-2	Motherwell
11/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	1-1 HT 0-1	Rangers
27/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	1-0 HT 0-0	Motherwell
02/08/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	1-1 HT 0-1	Rangers
01/03/25 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	1-2 HT 0-2	Motherwell
29/12/24 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-2 HT 2-0	Rangers

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
2	Hearts	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
3	Dundee	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
4	St Mirren	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Motherwell	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	Dundee Utd	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
7	Hibernian	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	St Johnstone	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
9	Aberdeen	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
10	Rangers	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	Falkirk	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
12	Kilmarnock	3	0	0	3	4	13	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rangers	Motherwell
Hibernian	1-2 L	2-1 W
Falkirk	5-2 W	0-0 D
Celtic	1-3 L	2-3 L
Hearts	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Motherwell (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rangers

WWLLLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
09/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
31/07	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
16/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	3-2	5-2	4	3	W
13/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
10/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-3	7	8	L
04/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
26/04	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-2	2-3	7	2	L
12/04	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-2	6-3	1	6	W
04/04	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	2-1	4-2	10	3	W

Motherwell

DLLWLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
16/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
13/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
09/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
02/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/04	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
11/04	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
04/04	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
21/03	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rangers vs Motherwell?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rangers win (61%). Probabilities: Rangers 61%, draw 23%, Motherwell 16%.

How many goals are expected in Rangers vs Motherwell?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Rangers 1.96 · Motherwell 0.93), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Rangers vs Motherwell?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.