Football · Scotland Premiership · 09/09, 20:45

Prediction: Rangers vs St Mirren

Team pages: Rangers · St Mirren

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Rangers2.16

St Mirren0.69

1X2

71% 19% 10%

Rangers Draw St Mirren

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Rangers 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDLWWW

St Mirren 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWWDWL

Head-to-head

Rangers 3–2–1 St Mirren (6 last)

Rangers5-1St Mirren
St Mirren0-1Rangers
Rangers2-1St Mirren
St Mirren1-1Rangers
St Mirren2-2Rangers
Rangers0-2St Mirren

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rangers 1536 · St Mirren 1506

	Rangers	Draw	St Mirren
Our model	70%	20%	10%
Market	72%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rangers: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rangers	St Mirren
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.9	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.25

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.28▼	Pinn 1.29
X	5.00 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.76 ★
2	7.50 → 8.50▲	Pinn 9.14

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:26 +31’	1.33	5.00	7.50
12:47 +11’	1.28▼	5.25▲	8.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:18 +39’	1.30	5.66	9.06
21:42 +6’	1.29▼	5.76▲	9.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Rangers 3–2–1 St Mirren

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Scotland League Cup	Rangers	5-1 HT 2-1	St Mirren
15/03/26 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-1 HT 0-1	Rangers
30/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	2-1 HT 1-0	St Mirren
24/08/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	1-1 HT 1-0	Rangers
26/04/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	2-2 HT 1-1	Rangers
22/02/25 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	0-2 HT 0-0	St Mirren

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	5	5	0	0	13	3	15
2	Hearts	5	4	0	1	12	5	12
3	St Mirren	5	3	1	1	8	5	10
4	Rangers	5	3	1	1	6	4	10
5	Motherwell	5	2	2	1	8	5	8
6	Dundee	6	2	1	3	7	6	7
7	St Johnstone	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
8	Hibernian	5	2	0	3	7	9	6
9	Dundee Utd	6	1	2	3	6	11	5
10	Aberdeen	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
11	Falkirk	5	0	2	3	3	7	2
12	Kilmarnock	5	0	1	4	4	14	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rangers	St Mirren
Motherwell	1-0 W	3-3 D
Falkirk	2-1 W	2-0 W
Aberdeen	1-0 W	2-0 W
Dundee Utd	1-1 D	1-1 D
Celtic	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: St Mirren (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rangers

LLLLWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
02/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
30/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
09/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
31/07	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
16/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	3-2	5-2	4	3	W
13/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
10/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-3	7	8	L
04/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
26/04	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-2	2-3	7	2	L

St Mirren

LLLWDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
02/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
30/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	3-2	3-3	7	4	D
08/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/05	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
12/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
09/05	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
02/05	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
25/04	Livingston Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-2	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rangers vs St Mirren?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rangers win (71%). Probabilities: Rangers 71%, draw 19%, St Mirren 10%.

How many goals are expected in Rangers vs St Mirren?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Rangers 2.16 · St Mirren 0.69), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Rangers vs St Mirren?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.