Football · New Zealand Southern League · 30/08, 03:00

Prediction: Nelson Suburbs vs Cashmere Technical

Team pages: Nelson Suburbs · Cashmere Technical

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

Nelson Suburbs1.24

Cashmere Technical3.17

1X2

11% 14% 75%

Nelson Suburbs Draw Cashmere Technical

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Nelson Suburbs 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Cashmere Technical 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nelson Suburbs 1–5 Cashmere Technical (6 last)

Cashmere Technical6-0Nelson Suburbs
Cashmere Technical3-0Nelson Suburbs
Nelson Suburbs2-0Cashmere Technical
Cashmere Technical6-2Nelson Suburbs
Nelson Suburbs1-6Cashmere Technical
Cashmere Technical5-4Nelson Suburbs

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nelson Suburbs 1543 · Cashmere Technical 1670

	Nelson Suburbs	Draw	Cashmere Technical
Our model	11%	14%	75%
Market	11%	14%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cashmere Technical (rating 1543 vs 1670).
H2H favours Cashmere Technical: 5-0-1.
High corners: 16.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nelson Suburbs	Cashmere Technical
Goals for / against (FT)	3.7 / 1.9	3.9 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1.1	2.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.7	3.3 / 9.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

18.00

X6.50

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.82

2 (-2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 1 · xG: 5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +11’	8.00	6.50	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nelson Suburbs 1–0–5 Cashmere Technical

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 New Zealand Southern League	Cashmere Technical	6-0 HT 2-0	Nelson Suburbs
02/08/25 New Zealand Southern League	Cashmere Technical	3-0 HT 2-0	Nelson Suburbs
26/04/25 New Zealand Southern League	Nelson Suburbs	2-0 HT 1-0	Cashmere Technical
03/08/24 New Zealand Southern League	Cashmere Technical	6-2 HT 3-0	Nelson Suburbs
28/04/24 New Zealand Southern League	Nelson Suburbs	1-6 HT 0-4	Cashmere Technical
24/06/23 New Zealand Southern League	Cashmere Technical	5-4 HT 1-4	Nelson Suburbs

Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cashmere Technical	15	14	1	0	71	7	43
2	Ferrymead Bays	16	10	2	4	32	18	32
3	Nomads United	16	9	3	4	28	22	30
4	Coastal Spirit	16	9	1	6	35	33	28
5	Nelson Suburbs	16	8	1	7	50	31	25
6	Northern AFC	16	6	2	8	19	35	20
7	Christchurch United	16	4	5	7	21	24	17
8	Dunedin City Royals FC	16	5	1	10	14	36	16
9	Wanaka AFC	15	3	1	11	15	48	10
10	Selwyn United	16	2	1	13	16	47	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nelson Suburbs	Cashmere Technical
Ferrymead Bays	0-5 L	4-0 W
Christchurch United	3-3 D	5-0 W
Nomads United	1-2 L	2-2 D
Selwyn United	2-1 W	4-1 W
Northern AFC	11-0 W	3-0 W
Dunedin City Royals FC	4-1 W	3-0 W
Coastal Spirit	5-3 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cashmere Technical (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nelson Suburbs

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-4	0-5	2	2	L
09/08	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	0-3	3-3	6	3	D
01/08	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
18/07	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
12/07	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	1-0	11-0	4	4	W
28/06	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	4-0	4-1	5	6	W
20/06	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	1-0	6-0	17	2	W
07/06	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	4-0	5-3	8	4	W
24/05	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	2-3	2-3	8	4	L
16/05	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	1-1	3-1	6	4	W

Cashmere Technical

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	0-0	3-0	9	0	W
09/08	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	3-0	5-1	12	1	W
01/08	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	4-0	5-0	7	4	W
18/07	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
27/06	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	4-0	4-0	8	0	W
21/06	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	1-0	2-2	5	1	D
06/06	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	3-1	4-1	12	5	W
23/05	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	5-0	6-0	–	–	W
17/05	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	1-1	5-1	12	1	W
03/05	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	1-0	2-0	10	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nelson Suburbs vs Cashmere Technical?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cashmere Technical win (75%). Probabilities: Nelson Suburbs 11%, draw 14%, Cashmere Technical 75%.

How many goals are expected in Nelson Suburbs vs Cashmere Technical?

The model expects 4.41 goals (Nelson Suburbs 1.24 · Cashmere Technical 3.17), with a 54% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Nelson Suburbs vs Cashmere Technical?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.