Football · New Zealand Southern League · 30/08, 03:00

Prediction: Northern AFC vs Christchurch United

Team pages: Northern AFC · Christchurch United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Northern AFC1.06

Christchurch United1.88

1X2

21% 23% 56%

Northern AFC Draw Christchurch United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Northern AFC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Christchurch United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDWLDL

Head-to-head

Northern AFC 0–1–0 Christchurch United (1 last)

Christchurch United1-1Northern AFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Northern AFC 1480 · Christchurch United 1461

	Northern AFC	Draw	Christchurch United
Our model	20%	25%	55%
Market	22%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Northern AFC	Christchurch United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.6	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X4.20

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +2’	4.10	4.20	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Northern AFC 0–1–0 Christchurch United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 New Zealand Southern League	Christchurch United	1-1 HT 1-1	Northern AFC

Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cashmere Technical	15	14	1	0	71	7	43
2	Ferrymead Bays	16	10	2	4	32	18	32
3	Nomads United	16	9	3	4	28	22	30
4	Coastal Spirit	16	9	1	6	35	33	28
5	Nelson Suburbs	16	8	1	7	50	31	25
6	Northern AFC	16	6	2	8	19	35	20
7	Christchurch United	16	4	5	7	21	24	17
8	Dunedin City Royals FC	16	5	1	10	14	36	16
9	Wanaka AFC	15	3	1	11	15	48	10
10	Selwyn United	16	2	1	13	16	47	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Northern AFC	Christchurch United
Selwyn United	3-1 W	4-1 W
Dunedin City Royals FC	4-0 W	0-2 L
Coastal Spirit	0-5 L	1-2 L
Cashmere Technical	0-3 L	0-5 L
Nelson Suburbs	0-11 L	3-3 D
Wanaka AFC	1-1 D	4-0 W
Ferrymead Bays	2-0 W	0-0 D
Nomads United	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Christchurch United (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Northern AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
08/08	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	3-0	4-0	3	1	W
02/08	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	0-2	0-5	2	0	L
18/07	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
12/07	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	0-1	0-11	0	4	L
27/06	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
20/06	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
06/06	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
01/06	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
23/05	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	2-0	3-1	4	3	W

Christchurch United

LLLWDDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
09/08	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	3-0	3-3	8	3	D
01/08	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	0-4	0-5	7	4	L
18/07	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
11/07	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/06	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
20/06	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	2-1	4-1	4	0	W
06/06	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
23/05	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
16/05	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	1-1	1-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Northern AFC vs Christchurch United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Christchurch United win (56%). Probabilities: Northern AFC 21%, draw 23%, Christchurch United 56%.

How many goals are expected in Northern AFC vs Christchurch United?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Northern AFC 1.06 · Christchurch United 1.88), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Northern AFC vs Christchurch United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.