Football · New Zealand Southern League · 30/08, 03:00

Prediction: Ferrymead Bays vs Dunedin City Royals FC

Team pages: Ferrymead Bays · Dunedin City Royals FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Ferrymead Bays2.93

Dunedin City Royals FC1.08

1X2

75% 15% 11%

Ferrymead Bays Draw Dunedin City Royals FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferrymead Bays 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLDWWLW

Dunedin City Royals FC 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWLWLL

Head-to-head

Ferrymead Bays 3–3–0 Dunedin City Royals FC (6 last)

Dunedin City Royals FC0-3Ferrymead Bays
Dunedin City Royals FC2-2Ferrymead Bays
Ferrymead Bays2-2Dunedin City Royals FC
Ferrymead Bays3-2Dunedin City Royals FC
Dunedin City Royals FC4-4Ferrymead Bays
Ferrymead Bays4-1Dunedin City Royals FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferrymead Bays 1541 · Dunedin City Royals FC 1426

	Ferrymead Bays	Draw	Dunedin City Royals FC
Our model	74%	15%	10%
Market	75%	15%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferrymead Bays (rating 1541 vs 1426).
H2H favours Ferrymead Bays: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferrymead Bays	Dunedin City Royals FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	0.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.25

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +18’	1.22	6.25	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferrymead Bays 3–3–0 Dunedin City Royals FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 New Zealand Southern League	Dunedin City Royals FC	0-3 HT 0-1	Ferrymead Bays
02/08/25 New Zealand Southern League	Dunedin City Royals FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Ferrymead Bays
25/04/25 New Zealand Southern League	Ferrymead Bays	2-2 HT 1-1	Dunedin City Royals FC
13/07/24 New Zealand Southern League	Ferrymead Bays	3-2 HT 0-1	Dunedin City Royals FC
13/04/24 New Zealand Southern League	Dunedin City Royals FC	4-4 HT 2-3	Ferrymead Bays
14/07/23 New Zealand Southern League	Ferrymead Bays	4-1 HT 1-0	Dunedin City Royals FC

Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cashmere Technical	15	14	1	0	71	7	43
2	Ferrymead Bays	16	10	2	4	32	18	32
3	Nomads United	16	9	3	4	28	22	30
4	Coastal Spirit	16	9	1	6	35	33	28
5	Nelson Suburbs	16	8	1	7	50	31	25
6	Northern AFC	16	6	2	8	19	35	20
7	Christchurch United	16	4	5	7	21	24	17
8	Dunedin City Royals FC	16	5	1	10	14	36	16
9	Wanaka AFC	15	3	1	11	15	48	10
10	Selwyn United	16	2	1	13	16	47	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferrymead Bays	Dunedin City Royals FC
Nelson Suburbs	5-0 W	1-4 L
Nomads United	1-2 L	0-2 L
Selwyn United	2-0 W	2-1 W
Coastal Spirit	6-0 W	0-2 L
Christchurch United	0-0 D	2-0 W
Cashmere Technical	0-4 L	0-3 L
Northern AFC	0-2 L	0-4 L
Wanaka AFC	5-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Ferrymead Bays (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferrymead Bays

DWWLLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	4-0	5-0	3	2	W
08/08	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
01/08	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	0-0	2-0	5	0	W
17/07	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	4-0	6-0	6	6	W
11/07	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
27/06	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	0-4	0-4	5	0	L
20/06	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
06/06	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	3-0	5-0	6	0	W
24/05	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	3-2	3-2	5	4	W
16/05	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	1-1	1-1	2	5	D

Dunedin City Royals FC

WLWLLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-3	1	0	L
08/08	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	0-3	0-4	8	1	L
01/08	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
18/07	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
11/07	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	1-0	2-1	8	0	W
28/06	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	0-4	1-4	3	6	L
21/06	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
06/06	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	0-0	2-0	3	0	W
23/05	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	0-5	0-6	–	–	L
16/05	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferrymead Bays vs Dunedin City Royals FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferrymead Bays win (75%). Probabilities: Ferrymead Bays 75%, draw 15%, Dunedin City Royals FC 11%.

How many goals are expected in Ferrymead Bays vs Dunedin City Royals FC?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Ferrymead Bays 2.93 · Dunedin City Royals FC 1.08), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferrymead Bays vs Dunedin City Royals FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.