Football · New Zealand Southern League · 30/08, 03:00

Prediction: Nomads United vs Selwyn United

Team pages: Nomads United · Selwyn United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.09Total

Nomads United3.04

Selwyn United1.04

1X2

81% 12% 8%

Nomads United Draw Selwyn United

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Nomads United 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDLWWWW

Selwyn United 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Nomads United 5–1–0 Selwyn United (6 last)

Selwyn United3-5Nomads United
Selwyn United2-6Nomads United
Nomads United2-1Selwyn United
Nomads United4-1Selwyn United
Selwyn United1-1Nomads United
Selwyn United0-3Nomads United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nomads United 1562 · Selwyn United 1374

	Nomads United	Draw	Selwyn United
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	84%	10%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 4.09 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nomads United (rating 1562 vs 1374).
H2H favours Nomads United: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nomads United	Selwyn United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.7	0.9 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.7	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.11

X9.50

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)1.85

2 (+2.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.11 → 1.11	Bet365 1.11
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +37’	1.11	9.50	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nomads United 5–1–0 Selwyn United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 New Zealand Southern League	Selwyn United	3-5 HT 1-1	Nomads United
16/08/25 New Zealand Southern League	Selwyn United	2-6 HT 0-3	Nomads United
17/05/25 New Zealand Southern League	Nomads United	2-1 HT 1-1	Selwyn United
03/08/24 New Zealand Southern League	Nomads United	4-1 HT 2-1	Selwyn United
27/04/24 New Zealand Southern League	Selwyn United	1-1 HT 0-0	Nomads United
03/09/23 New Zealand Southern League	Selwyn United	0-3 HT 0-1	Nomads United

Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cashmere Technical	15	14	1	0	71	7	43
2	Ferrymead Bays	16	10	2	4	32	18	32
3	Nomads United	16	9	3	4	28	22	30
4	Coastal Spirit	16	9	1	6	35	33	28
5	Nelson Suburbs	16	8	1	7	50	31	25
6	Northern AFC	16	6	2	8	19	35	20
7	Christchurch United	16	4	5	7	21	24	17
8	Dunedin City Royals FC	16	5	1	10	14	36	16
9	Wanaka AFC	15	3	1	11	15	48	10
10	Selwyn United	16	2	1	13	16	47	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nomads United	Selwyn United
Wanaka AFC	6-1 W	1-2 L
Ferrymead Bays	2-1 W	0-2 L
Nelson Suburbs	2-1 W	1-2 L
Dunedin City Royals FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
Coastal Spirit	0-1 L	0-5 L
Christchurch United	0-0 D	1-4 L
Cashmere Technical	2-2 D	1-4 L
Northern AFC	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: Nomads United (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nomads United

DWWDDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	4-1	6-1	6	0	W
08/08	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
01/08	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
18/07	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
12/07	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
27/06	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
21/06	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	0-1	2-2	6	1	D
06/06	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	1-0	2-0	11	3	W
23/05	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	2-0	2-0	8	8	W
16/05	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	1-1	1-1	4	5	D

Selwyn United

WLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
08/08	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	0-1	1-2	9	8	L
01/08	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
18/07	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
11/07	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
27/06	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	0-3	0-5	1	2	L
20/06	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	1-2	1-4	1	0	L
06/06	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	1-3	1-4	6	5	L
23/05	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
16/05	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	1-1	2-1	12	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nomads United vs Selwyn United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nomads United win (81%). Probabilities: Nomads United 81%, draw 12%, Selwyn United 8%.

How many goals are expected in Nomads United vs Selwyn United?

The model expects 4.09 goals (Nomads United 3.04 · Selwyn United 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nomads United vs Selwyn United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.