Football · New Zealand Southern League · 22/08, 02:30
Prediction: Coastal Spirit vs Christchurch United
Team pages: Coastal Spirit · Christchurch United
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.09Total
Coastal Spirit1.57
Christchurch United1.52
1X2
Coastal Spirit
Draw
Christchurch United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Coastal Spirit
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Christchurch United
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Coastal Spirit
3–3–0
Christchurch United
(6 last)
- Christchurch United0-2Coastal Spirit
- Coastal Spirit0-0Christchurch United
- Coastal Spirit0-0Christchurch United
- Christchurch United0-2Coastal Spirit
- Coastal Spirit2-1Christchurch United
- Christchurch United0-0Coastal Spirit
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coastal Spirit 1529 · Christchurch United 1484
| Coastal Spirit | Draw | Christchurch United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Market | 40% | 22% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coastal Spirit (rating 1529 vs 1484).
- H2H favours Coastal Spirit: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Coastal Spirit | Christchurch United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.6 | 2.3 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coastal Spirit 3–3–0 Christchurch United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 New Zealand Southern League | Christchurch United | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Coastal Spirit |
| 05/03/26 World Club Friendlies | Coastal Spirit | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Christchurch United |
| 25/10/25 New Zealand Football Championship | Coastal Spirit | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Christchurch United |
| 22/08/25 New Zealand Southern League | Christchurch United | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Coastal Spirit |
| 25/05/25 New Zealand Southern League | Coastal Spirit | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Christchurch United |
| 14/03/25 World Club Friendlies | Christchurch United | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Coastal Spirit |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 7 | 43 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 18 | 32 |
| 3 | Nomads United | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 30 |
| 4 | Coastal Spirit | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 33 | 28 |
| 5 | Nelson Suburbs | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 31 | 25 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 35 | 20 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 17 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 16 |
| 9 | Wanaka AFC | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 48 | 10 |
| 10 | Selwyn United | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 47 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Coastal Spirit | Christchurch United |
|---|---|---|
| Cashmere Technical | 1-5 L | 0-5 L |
| Ferrymead Bays | 0-6 L | 0-0 D |
| Nomads United | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Selwyn United | 5-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Dunedin City Royals FC | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Nelson Suburbs | 3-5 L | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Coastal Spirit (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coastal Spirit
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 0-6 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 3-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
Christchurch United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coastal Spirit vs Christchurch United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Coastal Spirit win (39%). Probabilities: Coastal Spirit 39%, draw 24%, Christchurch United 37%.
How many goals are expected in Coastal Spirit vs Christchurch United?
The model expects 3.09 goals (Coastal Spirit 1.57 · Christchurch United 1.52), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Coastal Spirit vs Christchurch United?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.