Prediction: Nomads United vs Wanaka AFC
Team pages: Nomads United · Wanaka AFC
- Wanaka AFC0-2Nomads United
- Nomads United4-1Wanaka AFC
- Wanaka AFC2-3Nomads United
| Nomads United | Draw | Wanaka AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 16% | 8% |
| Market | 77% | 13% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nomads United (rating 1543 vs 1424).
- H2H favours Nomads United: 3-0-0.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nomads United | Wanaka AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 7.1 | 1.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nomads United 3–0–0 Wanaka AFC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 New Zealand Southern League | Wanaka AFC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Nomads United |
| 09/08/25 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 4-1 HT 0-0 | Wanaka AFC |
| 03/05/25 New Zealand Southern League | Wanaka AFC | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Nomads United |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 7 | 43 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 18 | 32 |
| 3 | Nomads United | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 30 |
| 4 | Coastal Spirit | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 33 | 28 |
| 5 | Nelson Suburbs | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 31 | 25 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 35 | 20 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 17 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 16 |
| 9 | Wanaka AFC | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 48 | 10 |
| 10 | Selwyn United | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 47 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nomads United | Wanaka AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Ferrymead Bays | 2-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Nelson Suburbs | 2-1 W | 0-6 L |
| Dunedin City Royals FC | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Christchurch United | 0-0 D | 0-4 L |
| Northern AFC | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Nomads United (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nomads United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 21/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 14/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
Wanaka AFC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 01/08 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Northern AFC New Zealand Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 16/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nomads United vs Wanaka AFC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nomads United win (76%). Probabilities: Nomads United 76%, draw 14%, Wanaka AFC 9%.
How many goals are expected in Nomads United vs Wanaka AFC?
The model expects 3.4 goals (Nomads United 2.6 · Wanaka AFC 0.8), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Nomads United vs Wanaka AFC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.