Football · New Zealand Southern League · 30/08, 03:00

Prediction: Wanaka AFC vs Coastal Spirit

Team pages: Wanaka AFC · Coastal Spirit

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.17Total

Wanaka AFC1.13

Coastal Spirit3.04

1X2

10% 14% 75%

Wanaka AFC Draw Coastal Spirit

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Wanaka AFC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLLWL

Coastal Spirit 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Wanaka AFC 0–3 Coastal Spirit (3 last)

Coastal Spirit4-2Wanaka AFC
Wanaka AFC0-4Coastal Spirit
Coastal Spirit6-0Wanaka AFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wanaka AFC 1407 · Coastal Spirit 1538

	Wanaka AFC	Draw	Coastal Spirit
Our model	10%	15%	75%
Market	11%	14%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 4.17 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coastal Spirit (rating 1407 vs 1538).
H2H favours Coastal Spirit: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wanaka AFC	Coastal Spirit
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 3	2.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.5	1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.4	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

18.50

X6.50

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.82

2 (-2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +2’	8.50	6.50	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wanaka AFC 0–0–3 Coastal Spirit

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 New Zealand Southern League	Coastal Spirit	4-2 HT 0-0	Wanaka AFC
19/07/25 New Zealand Southern League	Wanaka AFC	0-4 HT 0-1	Coastal Spirit
18/04/25 New Zealand Southern League	Coastal Spirit	6-0 HT 0-0	Wanaka AFC

Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cashmere Technical	15	14	1	0	71	7	43
2	Ferrymead Bays	16	10	2	4	32	18	32
3	Nomads United	16	9	3	4	28	22	30
4	Coastal Spirit	16	9	1	6	35	33	28
5	Nelson Suburbs	16	8	1	7	50	31	25
6	Northern AFC	16	6	2	8	19	35	20
7	Christchurch United	16	4	5	7	21	24	17
8	Dunedin City Royals FC	16	5	1	10	14	36	16
9	Wanaka AFC	15	3	1	11	15	48	10
10	Selwyn United	16	2	1	13	16	47	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wanaka AFC	Coastal Spirit
Nomads United	1-6 L	1-0 W
Selwyn United	2-1 W	5-0 W
Dunedin City Royals FC	1-2 L	2-0 W
Christchurch United	0-4 L	2-1 W
Northern AFC	1-1 D	5-0 W
Nelson Suburbs	0-6 L	3-5 L
Ferrymead Bays	0-5 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Coastal Spirit (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wanaka AFC

WLLLLDLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	1-4	1-6	1	0	L
08/08	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
01/08	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
18/07	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
27/06	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
20/06	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	0-1	0-6	4	2	L
06/06	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-3	0-5	5	0	L
23/05	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	0-2	0-2	4	8	L
16/05	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
02/05	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	2-1	2-1	2	2	W

Coastal Spirit

WWLWWWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	1-1	2-1	10	3	W
09/08	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	0-3	1-5	3	1	L
02/08	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	2-0	5-0	4	0	W
17/07	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-4	0-6	4	6	L
12/07	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/06	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	3-0	5-0	8	2	W
21/06	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	2-0	2-0	10	3	W
07/06	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	0-4	3-5	2	4	L
01/06	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
23/05	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	0-0	2-0	0	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wanaka AFC vs Coastal Spirit?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Coastal Spirit win (75%). Probabilities: Wanaka AFC 10%, draw 14%, Coastal Spirit 75%.

How many goals are expected in Wanaka AFC vs Coastal Spirit?

The model expects 4.17 goals (Wanaka AFC 1.13 · Coastal Spirit 3.04), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Wanaka AFC vs Coastal Spirit?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.