Football · New Zealand Northern League · 18/07, 05:00
Prediction: East Coast Bays vs Bay Olympic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
East Coast Bays2.1
Bay Olympic0.97
1X2
East Coast Bays
Draw
Bay Olympic
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
East Coast Bays
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Bay Olympic
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
East Coast Bays
2–2–2
Bay Olympic
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · East Coast Bays 1499 · Bay Olympic 1429
| East Coast Bays | Draw | Bay Olympic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 64% | 19% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours East Coast Bays (rating 1499 vs 1429).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| East Coast Bays | Bay Olympic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.5 | 0.8 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/44/22% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.8 | 2.6 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · East Coast Bays 2–2–2 Bay Olympic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 0-1 HT 0-1 | East Coast Bays |
| 12/07/25 New Zealand Northern League | East Coast Bays | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bay Olympic |
| 05/04/25 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 2-2 HT 2-1 | East Coast Bays |
| 22/06/24 New Zealand Northern League | East Coast Bays | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Bay Olympic |
| 29/03/24 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 2-1 HT 1-0 | East Coast Bays |
| 29/04/17 New Zealand Northern League | East Coast Bays | 4-1 HT 4-0 | Bay Olympic |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 8 | 44 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Fencibles United | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | East Coast Bays | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 30 |
| 6 | Auckland United FC | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 28 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 32 | 20 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 36 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 38 | 11 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 11 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 16 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 51 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | East Coast Bays | Bay Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Fencibles United | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Tauranga City AFC | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Manukau United | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Western Springs AFC | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Auckland FC II | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Birkenhead United | 1-3 L | 2-6 L |
| Auckland United FC | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: East Coast Bays (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
East Coast Bays
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
Bay Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-3 | 2-6 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in East Coast Bays vs Bay Olympic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a East Coast Bays win (63%). Probabilities: East Coast Bays 63%, draw 20%, Bay Olympic 16%.
How many goals are expected in East Coast Bays vs Bay Olympic?
The model expects 3.07 goals (East Coast Bays 2.1 · Bay Olympic 0.97), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in East Coast Bays vs Bay Olympic?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.