Football · New Zealand Northern League · 18/07, 06:00
Prediction: Auckland United FC vs Western Springs AFC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Auckland United FC2.04
Western Springs AFC1.3
1X2
Auckland United FC
Draw
Western Springs AFC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Auckland United FC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Western Springs AFC
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Auckland United FC
1–1–4
Western Springs AFC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Auckland United FC 1543 · Western Springs AFC 1487
| Auckland United FC | Draw | Western Springs AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland United FC (rating 1543 vs 1487).
- H2H favours Western Springs AFC: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland United FC | Western Springs AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 7 | 1.3 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland United FC 1–1–4 Western Springs AFC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Auckland United FC |
| 26/10/25 New Zealand Football Championship | Western Springs AFC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Auckland United FC |
| 30/08/25 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Auckland United FC |
| 17/05/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland United FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Western Springs AFC |
| 13/07/24 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland United FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Western Springs AFC |
| 04/05/24 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Auckland United FC |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 8 | 44 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Fencibles United | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | East Coast Bays | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 30 |
| 6 | Auckland United FC | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 28 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 32 | 20 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 36 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 38 | 11 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 11 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 16 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 51 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Auckland United FC | Western Springs AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Birkenhead United | 0-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Melville United | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Auckland City | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Auckland FC II | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| East Coast Bays | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Bay Olympic | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Fencibles United | 1-1 D | 0-6 L |
| Tauranga City AFC | 3-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland United FC (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Auckland United FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Cambridge FC New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 8 | D |
| 27/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Western Springs AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Auckland United FC vs Western Springs AFC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland United FC win (54%). Probabilities: Auckland United FC 54%, draw 23%, Western Springs AFC 23%.
How many goals are expected in Auckland United FC vs Western Springs AFC?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Auckland United FC 2.04 · Western Springs AFC 1.3), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Auckland United FC vs Western Springs AFC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.