Football · New Zealand Northern League · 18/07, 05:00
Prediction: Auckland City vs Tauranga City AFC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.7Total
Auckland City2.8
Tauranga City AFC0.9
1X2
Auckland City
Draw
Tauranga City AFC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Auckland City
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Tauranga City AFC
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Auckland City
4–1–1
Tauranga City AFC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Auckland City 1586 · Tauranga City AFC 1423
| Auckland City | Draw | Tauranga City AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Market | 77% | 13% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland City (rating 1586 vs 1423).
- H2H favours Auckland City: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland City | Tauranga City AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.2 | 2.2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland City 4–1–1 Tauranga City AFC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | Tauranga City AFC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Auckland City |
| 12/07/25 New Zealand Northern League | Tauranga City AFC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Auckland City |
| 15/03/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland City | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Tauranga City AFC |
| 29/06/24 New Zealand Northern League | Tauranga City AFC | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Auckland City |
| 01/04/24 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland City | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Tauranga City AFC |
| 19/06/21 New Zealand Cup | Auckland City | 7-2 HT 4-1 | Tauranga City AFC |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 8 | 44 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Fencibles United | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | East Coast Bays | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 30 |
| 6 | Auckland United FC | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 28 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 32 | 20 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 36 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 38 | 11 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 11 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 16 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 51 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Auckland City | Tauranga City AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Manukau United | 5-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Auckland FC II | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Western Springs AFC | 3-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Birkenhead United | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| East Coast Bays | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Auckland United FC | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Melville United | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland City (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Auckland City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Takapuna New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 01/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
Tauranga City AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-4 | 1-7 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
3-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Auckland City vs Tauranga City AFC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland City win (77%). Probabilities: Auckland City 77%, draw 14%, Tauranga City AFC 9%.
How many goals are expected in Auckland City vs Tauranga City AFC?
The model expects 3.7 goals (Auckland City 2.8 · Tauranga City AFC 0.9), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Auckland City vs Tauranga City AFC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.