Football · New Zealand Northern League · 22/07, 09:30

Prediction: East Coast Bays vs Auckland City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

East Coast Bays0.94

Auckland City1.81

1X2

19% 23% 58%

East Coast Bays Draw Auckland City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

East Coast Bays 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLWWLD

Auckland City 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

East Coast Bays 0–1–5 Auckland City (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · East Coast Bays 1477 · Auckland City 1590

	East Coast Bays	Draw	Auckland City
Our model	18%	25%	57%
Market	20%	21%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland City (rating 1477 vs 1590).
H2H favours Auckland City: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	East Coast Bays	Auckland City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	2.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	3.6 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +3’	4.50	4.20	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · East Coast Bays 0–1–5 Auckland City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 New Zealand Cup	Auckland City	2-1 HT 1-1	East Coast Bays
09/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	1-0 HT 0-0	East Coast Bays
30/08/25 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	2-0 HT 1-0	East Coast Bays
17/05/25 New Zealand Northern League	East Coast Bays	2-2 HT 1-1	Auckland City
13/07/24 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	1-0 HT 0-0	East Coast Bays
04/05/24 New Zealand Northern League	East Coast Bays	0-3 HT 0-1	Auckland City

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	17	15	2	0	45	9	47
2	Auckland City	18	11	3	4	39	14	36
3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	17	10	4	3	27	6	34
4	Fencibles United	17	11	1	5	47	27	34
5	East Coast Bays	17	9	4	4	29	23	31
6	Auckland United FC	17	8	5	4	30	16	29
7	Auckland FC II	18	6	3	9	28	32	21
8	Western Springs AFC	17	6	3	8	26	32	21
9	Tauranga City AFC	17	3	3	11	22	39	12
10	Bay Olympic	17	3	3	11	14	38	12
11	Melville United	17	3	2	12	18	42	11
12	Manukau United	17	1	1	15	11	58	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	East Coast Bays	Auckland City
Tauranga City AFC	2-1 W	3-2 W
Manukau United	2-0 W	5-0 W
Western Springs AFC	2-2 D	3-0 W
Auckland FC II	0-0 D	2-0 W
Birkenhead United	1-3 L	2-3 L
Auckland United FC	0-3 L	1-1 D
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Auckland City (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

East Coast Bays

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-2	3	3	D
11/07	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	3	3	L
27/06	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
20/06	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
13/06	Auckland City New Zealand Cup	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/06	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-2	5	4	D
01/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Cup	–	0-0	–	–	D
28/05	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
23/05	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
16/05	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W

Auckland City

WDDWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	2-1	3-2	15	2	W
11/07	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	5-0	8	1	W
04/07	Takapuna New Zealand Cup	0-0	3-0	3	7	W
01/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/06	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	3-0	11	1	W
20/06	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-3	2-3	3	4	L
13/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
06/06	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
30/05	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
23/05	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	4-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in East Coast Bays vs Auckland City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland City win (58%). Probabilities: East Coast Bays 19%, draw 23%, Auckland City 58%.

How many goals are expected in East Coast Bays vs Auckland City?

The model expects 2.75 goals (East Coast Bays 0.94 · Auckland City 1.81), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in East Coast Bays vs Auckland City?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.