Football · New Zealand Northern League · 18/07, 07:30
Prediction: Birkenhead United vs Melville United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.12Total
Birkenhead United3.06
Melville United1.06
1X2
Birkenhead United
Draw
Melville United
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Birkenhead United
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Melville United
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Birkenhead United
4–1–1
Melville United
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Birkenhead United 1611 · Melville United 1402
| Birkenhead United | Draw | Melville United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 86% | 8% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.12 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birkenhead United (rating 1611 vs 1402).
- H2H favours Birkenhead United: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birkenhead United | Melville United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 5.3 / 9.3 | 1.7 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birkenhead United 4–1–1 Melville United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Birkenhead United |
| 29/06/24 New Zealand Northern League | Birkenhead United | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Melville United |
| 01/04/24 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Birkenhead United |
| 12/08/23 New Zealand Northern League | Birkenhead United | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Melville United |
| 06/05/23 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Birkenhead United |
| 06/11/22 New Zealand Football Championship | Melville United | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Birkenhead United |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 8 | 44 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Fencibles United | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | East Coast Bays | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 30 |
| 6 | Auckland United FC | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 28 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 32 | 20 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 36 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 38 | 11 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 11 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 16 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 51 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Birkenhead United | Melville United |
|---|---|---|
| Auckland United FC | 4-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| Auckland City | 3-2 W | 0-4 L |
| Fencibles United | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Auckland FC II | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Bay Olympic | 6-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Tauranga City AFC | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Birkenhead United (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birkenhead United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 8 | W |
| 01/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Cup |
3-1 | 6-2 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 28/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
Melville United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Hibiscus Coast New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birkenhead United vs Melville United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Birkenhead United win (82%). Probabilities: Birkenhead United 82%, draw 11%, Melville United 7%.
How many goals are expected in Birkenhead United vs Melville United?
The model expects 4.12 goals (Birkenhead United 3.06 · Melville United 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Birkenhead United vs Melville United?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.