Football · New Zealand Northern League · 18/07, 08:00
Prediction: Auckland FC II vs Fencibles United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.41Total
Auckland FC II1.51
Fencibles United1.9
1X2
Auckland FC II
Draw
Fencibles United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Auckland FC II
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Fencibles United
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Auckland FC II
0–1–2
Fencibles United
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Auckland FC II 1503 · Fencibles United 1598
| Auckland FC II | Draw | Fencibles United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| Market | 31% | 22% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fencibles United (rating 1503 vs 1598).
- H2H favours Fencibles United: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland FC II | Fencibles United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/33/22% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 5.3 | 2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland FC II 0–1–2 Fencibles United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | Fencibles United | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Auckland FC II |
| 07/06/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland FC II | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Fencibles United |
| 22/03/25 New Zealand Northern League | Fencibles United | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Auckland FC II |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 8 | 44 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Fencibles United | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | East Coast Bays | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 30 |
| 6 | Auckland United FC | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 28 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 32 | 20 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 36 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 38 | 11 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 11 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 16 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 51 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Auckland FC II | Fencibles United |
|---|---|---|
| Tauranga City AFC | 2-1 W | 7-1 W |
| Bay Olympic | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Manukau United | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Western Springs AFC | 0-1 L | 6-0 W |
| Birkenhead United | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| East Coast Bays | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Auckland United FC | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Fencibles United (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Auckland FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 01/07 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | South Melbourne OFC Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
Fencibles United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | South Auckland Rangers AFC New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
4-1 | 7-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 29/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Auckland FC II vs Fencibles United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Fencibles United win (46%). Probabilities: Auckland FC II 30%, draw 23%, Fencibles United 46%.
How many goals are expected in Auckland FC II vs Fencibles United?
The model expects 3.41 goals (Auckland FC II 1.51 · Fencibles United 1.9), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Auckland FC II vs Fencibles United?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.