Football · New Zealand Northern League · 18/07, 05:00

Prediction: Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Manukau United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Eastern Suburbs Auckland2.84

Manukau United0.84

1X2

85% 10% 5%

Eastern Suburbs Auckland Draw Manukau United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Eastern Suburbs Auckland 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWLDW

Manukau United 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Eastern Suburbs Auckland 4–1–1 Manukau United (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 1562 · Manukau United 1378

	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	Draw	Manukau United
Our model	78%	14%	8%
Market	91%	6%	2%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eastern Suburbs Auckland (rating 1562 vs 1378).
H2H favours Eastern Suburbs Auckland: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	Manukau United
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.3	0.7 / 3.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.7	1.5 / 2.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	1.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.03

X15.00

241.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.82

2 (+3.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 2.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.06 → 1.03 ▼ -3%

X 13.00 → 15.00 ▲ +15.4%

2 23.00 → 41.00 ▲ +78.3%

Over/Under 4

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 4–1–1 Manukau United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	0-3 HT 0-2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
05/07/25 New Zealand Cup	Manukau United	1-3 HT 0-2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
22/07/23 New Zealand Northern League	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-0 HT 0-0	Manukau United
22/04/23 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	0-6 HT 0-1	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
06/08/22 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	1-1 HT 0-0	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
30/04/22 New Zealand Northern League	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	0-2 HT 0-0	Manukau United

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	16	14	2	0	41	8	44
2	Auckland City	17	10	3	4	36	12	33
3	Fencibles United	16	10	1	5	45	26	31
4	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	16	9	4	3	20	6	31
5	East Coast Bays	16	9	3	4	27	21	30
6	Auckland United FC	16	8	4	4	30	16	28
7	Auckland FC II	17	6	3	8	27	30	21
8	Western Springs AFC	16	6	2	8	26	32	20
9	Tauranga City AFC	16	3	3	10	20	36	12
10	Melville United	16	3	2	11	17	38	11
11	Bay Olympic	16	3	2	11	12	36	11
12	Manukau United	16	1	1	14	11	51	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	Manukau United
Western Springs AFC	1-0 W	0-5 L
Birkenhead United	1-1 D	1-5 L
Auckland United FC	0-1 L	0-7 L
Melville United	4-0 W	0-2 L
Auckland City	0-0 D	0-5 L
Auckland FC II	1-0 W	2-3 L
East Coast Bays	0-1 L	0-2 L
Bay Olympic	2-0 W	0-1 L
Fencibles United	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 9 L

Better against common opponents: Eastern Suburbs Auckland (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Eastern Suburbs Auckland

WWLWDDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
27/06	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
20/06	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
06/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	2-0	4-0	11	3	W
01/06	Melville United New Zealand Cup	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
30/05	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/05	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
16/05	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
09/05	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
02/05	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

Manukau United

LLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-5	2	1	L
27/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	3	1	L
20/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
06/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
29/05	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
23/05	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
16/05	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
09/05	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-5	3	2	L
02/05	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-5	1	2	L
25/04	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-3	0-7	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Manukau United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Eastern Suburbs Auckland win (85%). Probabilities: Eastern Suburbs Auckland 85%, draw 10%, Manukau United 5%.

How many goals are expected in Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Manukau United?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Eastern Suburbs Auckland 2.84 · Manukau United 0.84), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Manukau United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.