Prediction: Western Suburbs vs Island Bay United
Expected goals: 3.5 (Western Suburbs 2.53 · Island Bay United 0.97). The model gives 71% home, 17% draw, 12% away. Under 3.75 goals (55%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Recent form leaves Western Suburbs with 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Island Bay United has piled up 3-1-6 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Western Suburbs won 4 and Island Bay United 1, with 1 draw.
| Western Suburbs | Draw | Island Bay United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Western Suburbs (rating 1532 vs 1442).
- H2H favours Western Suburbs: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Western Suburbs | Island Bay United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.4 | 2.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Suburbs 4–1–1 Island Bay United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 0-6 HT 0-3 | Western Suburbs |
| 30/08/25 New Zealand Central League | Western Suburbs | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Island Bay United |
| 14/06/25 New Zealand Cup | Island Bay United | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Western Suburbs |
| 24/05/25 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Western Suburbs |
| 09/06/24 New Zealand Central League | Western Suburbs | 5-1 HT 0-1 | Island Bay United |
| 30/03/24 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 1-7 HT 1-6 | Western Suburbs |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 10 | 29 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 18 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 12 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 11 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Waterside Karori | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 8 |
| 10 | FC Western | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Western Suburbs | Island Bay United |
|---|---|---|
| FC Western | 1-1 D | 5-0 W |
| Miramar Rangers | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Napier City Rovers | 3-3 D | 0-1 L |
| Waterside Karori | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| Petone FC | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Upper Hutt City | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Western Suburbs
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 09/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
Island Bay United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 03/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Cup |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
5-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Western Suburbs vs Island Bay United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Western Suburbs win (71%). Probabilities: Western Suburbs 71%, draw 17%, Island Bay United 12%.
How many goals are expected in Western Suburbs vs Island Bay United?
The model expects 3.5 goals (Western Suburbs 2.53 · Island Bay United 0.97), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Western Suburbs vs Island Bay United?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.