Football · New Zealand Central League · 18/07, 03:00
Prediction: Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Napier City Rovers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Wellington Phoenix Reserves0.73
Napier City Rovers2.21
1X2
Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Draw
Napier City Rovers
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Wellington Phoenix Reserves
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Napier City Rovers
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wellington Phoenix Reserves
1–2–3
Napier City Rovers
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1450 · Napier City Rovers 1607
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | Draw | Napier City Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 20% | 70% |
| Market | 11% | 17% | 72% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Napier City Rovers (rating 1450 vs 1607).
- H2H favours Napier City Rovers: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | Napier City Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.3 | 3.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 56/22/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6.5 | 3.7 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1–2–3 Napier City Rovers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Napier City Rovers | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
| 29/06/25 New Zealand Central League | Napier City Rovers | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
| 01/06/25 New Zealand Cup | Napier City Rovers | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
| 12/04/25 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Napier City Rovers |
| 13/10/24 New Zealand Football Championship | Napier City Rovers | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
| 14/07/24 New Zealand Central League | Napier City Rovers | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 10 | 32 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 42 | 13 | 29 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 18 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 31 | 12 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
| 8 | Waterside Karori | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 11 |
| 9 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Western | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 45 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | Napier City Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Miramar Rangers | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| FC Western | 1-1 D | 6-1 W |
| Petone FC | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Waterside Karori | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Island Bay United | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Upper Hutt City | 0-1 L | 5-1 W |
| Wellington Olympic | 1-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Western Suburbs | 0-1 L | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 4 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Napier City Rovers (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wellington Phoenix Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 27/06 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 03/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Cup |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
Napier City Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Petone FC New Zealand Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Napier City Rovers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Napier City Rovers win (71%). Probabilities: Wellington Phoenix Reserves 11%, draw 18%, Napier City Rovers 71%.
How many goals are expected in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Napier City Rovers?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Wellington Phoenix Reserves 0.73 · Napier City Rovers 2.21), with a 58% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Napier City Rovers?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.