Football · New Zealand Central League · 18/07, 05:15
Prediction: Petone FC vs Miramar Rangers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Petone FC1.05
Miramar Rangers2.19
1X2
Petone FC
Draw
Miramar Rangers
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Petone FC
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Miramar Rangers
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Petone FC
1–2–3
Miramar Rangers
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Petone FC 1421 · Miramar Rangers 1618
| Petone FC | Draw | Miramar Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 21% | 62% |
| Market | 18% | 18% | 64% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miramar Rangers (rating 1421 vs 1618).
- H2H favours Miramar Rangers: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Petone FC | Miramar Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 2.2 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.7 | 4 / 7.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Petone FC 1–2–3 Miramar Rangers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Petone FC |
| 30/08/25 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Miramar Rangers |
| 24/05/25 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Petone FC |
| 13/07/24 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 0-9 HT 0-4 | Miramar Rangers |
| 20/04/24 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Petone FC |
| 05/08/23 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Petone FC |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 10 | 32 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 42 | 13 | 29 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 18 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 31 | 12 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
| 8 | Waterside Karori | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 11 |
| 9 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Western | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 45 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Petone FC | Miramar Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Napier City Rovers | 0-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| FC Western | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Upper Hutt City | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Island Bay United | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Wellington Olympic | 1-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Western Suburbs | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Miramar Rangers (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Petone FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
Miramar Rangers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Island Bay United New Zealand Cup |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 4-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Petone FC vs Miramar Rangers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Miramar Rangers win (63%). Probabilities: Petone FC 17%, draw 20%, Miramar Rangers 63%.
How many goals are expected in Petone FC vs Miramar Rangers?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Petone FC 1.05 · Miramar Rangers 2.19), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Petone FC vs Miramar Rangers?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.