Football · New Zealand Central League · 18/07, 05:00
Prediction: Upper Hutt City vs Western Suburbs
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Upper Hutt City1.22
Western Suburbs2.14
1X2
Upper Hutt City
Draw
Western Suburbs
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Upper Hutt City
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Western Suburbs
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Upper Hutt City
0–1–4
Western Suburbs
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Upper Hutt City 1465 · Western Suburbs 1542
| Upper Hutt City | Draw | Western Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 22% | 57% |
| Market | 21% | 20% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Western Suburbs (rating 1465 vs 1542).
- H2H favours Western Suburbs: 4-1-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Upper Hutt City | Western Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.3 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5 | 3.1 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Upper Hutt City 0–1–4 Western Suburbs
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Western Suburbs | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Upper Hutt City |
| 23/08/25 New Zealand Central League | Upper Hutt City | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Western Suburbs |
| 31/05/25 New Zealand Cup | Upper Hutt City | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Western Suburbs |
| 17/05/25 New Zealand Central League | Western Suburbs | 5-0 HT 0-0 | Upper Hutt City |
| 07/06/21 New Zealand Cup | Western Suburbs | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Upper Hutt City |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 10 | 32 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 42 | 13 | 29 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 18 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 31 | 12 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
| 8 | Waterside Karori | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 11 |
| 9 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Western | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 45 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Upper Hutt City | Western Suburbs |
|---|---|---|
| Napier City Rovers | 1-5 L | 3-3 D |
| Waterside Karori | 6-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Miramar Rangers | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Petone FC | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FC Western | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Island Bay United | 1-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Wellington Olympic | 1-6 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Upper Hutt City (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Upper Hutt City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
5-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Western Suburbs
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 09/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Upper Hutt City vs Western Suburbs?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Western Suburbs win (58%). Probabilities: Upper Hutt City 21%, draw 21%, Western Suburbs 58%.
How many goals are expected in Upper Hutt City vs Western Suburbs?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Upper Hutt City 1.22 · Western Suburbs 2.14), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Upper Hutt City vs Western Suburbs?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.