Prediction: FC Western vs Waterside Karori
| FC Western | Draw | Waterside Karori | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Market | 29% | 22% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Waterside Karori (rating 1411 vs 1474).
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Western | Waterside Karori | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 3.3 | 0.8 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.6 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 33/22/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.3 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Western 0–0–1 Waterside Karori
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Western |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 10 | 32 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 42 | 13 | 29 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 18 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 31 | 12 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
| 8 | Waterside Karori | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 11 |
| 9 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Western | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 45 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Western | Waterside Karori |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Olympic | 0-9 L | 0-3 L |
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Western Suburbs | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Petone FC | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Napier City Rovers | 1-6 L | 0-0 D |
| Upper Hutt City | 1-4 L | 0-6 L |
| Miramar Rangers | 1-3 L | 0-6 L |
| Island Bay United | 0-5 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 6 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Waterside Karori (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Western
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-5 | 0-9 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 28/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/06 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-5 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
Waterside Karori
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-5 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 01/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 10/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Western vs Waterside Karori?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Waterside Karori win (48%). Probabilities: FC Western 29%, draw 23%, Waterside Karori 48%.
How many goals are expected in FC Western vs Waterside Karori?
The model expects 3.4 goals (FC Western 1.46 · Waterside Karori 1.94), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Western vs Waterside Karori?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.