Football · New Zealand Central League · 12/07, 04:00
Prediction: Napier City Rovers vs Upper Hutt City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.79Total
Napier City Rovers2.58
Upper Hutt City1.21
1X2
Napier City Rovers
Draw
Upper Hutt City
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Napier City Rovers
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Upper Hutt City
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Napier City Rovers
2–1–1
Upper Hutt City
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Napier City Rovers 1611 · Upper Hutt City 1466
| Napier City Rovers | Draw | Upper Hutt City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 67% | 16% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Napier City Rovers (rating 1611 vs 1466).
- H2H favours Napier City Rovers: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Napier City Rovers | Upper Hutt City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/33/22% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.8 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Napier City Rovers 2–1–1 Upper Hutt City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Upper Hutt City | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Napier City Rovers |
| 12/07/25 New Zealand Central League | Upper Hutt City | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Napier City Rovers |
| 20/04/25 New Zealand Central League | Napier City Rovers | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Upper Hutt City |
| 04/06/18 New Zealand Cup | Upper Hutt City | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Napier City Rovers |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 10 | 29 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 18 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 12 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 11 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Waterside Karori | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 8 |
| 10 | FC Western | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Napier City Rovers | Upper Hutt City |
|---|---|---|
| Petone FC | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Wellington Olympic | 3-2 W | 1-6 L |
| Island Bay United | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Western Suburbs | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| Waterside Karori | 0-0 D | 6-0 W |
| FC Western | 6-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Miramar Rangers | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Napier City Rovers (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Napier City Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Petone FC New Zealand Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
Upper Hutt City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
5-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Napier City Rovers vs Upper Hutt City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Napier City Rovers win (67%). Probabilities: Napier City Rovers 67%, draw 17%, Upper Hutt City 16%.
How many goals are expected in Napier City Rovers vs Upper Hutt City?
The model expects 3.79 goals (Napier City Rovers 2.58 · Upper Hutt City 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Napier City Rovers vs Upper Hutt City?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.