Football · New Zealand Central League · 18/07, 05:45
Prediction: Island Bay United vs Wellington Olympic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.29Total
Island Bay United1.17
Wellington Olympic3.12
1X2
Island Bay United
Draw
Wellington Olympic
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Island Bay United
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Wellington Olympic
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Island Bay United
0–5
Wellington Olympic
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Island Bay United 1436 · Wellington Olympic 1576
| Island Bay United | Draw | Wellington Olympic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 75% |
| Market | 10% | 15% | 75% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wellington Olympic (rating 1436 vs 1576).
- H2H favours Wellington Olympic: 5-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Island Bay United | Wellington Olympic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.3 | 3.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4 | 2.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 1.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Island Bay United 0–0–5 Wellington Olympic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Olympic | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Island Bay United |
| 23/08/25 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 0-5 HT 0-5 | Wellington Olympic |
| 17/05/25 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Olympic | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Island Bay United |
| 03/08/24 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Olympic | 8-0 HT 3-0 | Island Bay United |
| 04/05/24 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 1-6 HT 1-3 | Wellington Olympic |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 10 | 32 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 42 | 13 | 29 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 18 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 31 | 12 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
| 8 | Waterside Karori | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 11 |
| 9 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Western | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 45 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Island Bay United | Wellington Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Western Suburbs | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Miramar Rangers | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Napier City Rovers | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Waterside Karori | 0-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Petone FC | 2-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Upper Hutt City | 4-1 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Wellington Olympic (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Island Bay United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 03/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Cup |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Wellington Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
5-0 | 9-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 28/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Island Bay United vs Wellington Olympic?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Wellington Olympic win (75%). Probabilities: Island Bay United 10%, draw 15%, Wellington Olympic 75%.
How many goals are expected in Island Bay United vs Wellington Olympic?
The model expects 4.29 goals (Island Bay United 1.17 · Wellington Olympic 3.12), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Island Bay United vs Wellington Olympic?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.