Prediction: Western United FC NPL vs Melbourne Victory NPL
Expected goals: 4.29 (Western United FC NPL 1.81 · Melbourne Victory NPL 2.48). The model gives 28% home, 20% draw, 52% away. Over 4 goals (50%) and both teams to score (63%). Most likely score: 1-2.
Over its last 10 matches, Western United FC NPL sits at 4-1-5 (W-D-L), while Melbourne Victory NPL arrives on a 6-1-3 run. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Western United FC NPL and 2 for Melbourne Victory NPL, with 2 draws.
| Western United FC NPL | Draw | Melbourne Victory NPL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 20% | 52% |
| Market | 28% | 21% | 52% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory NPL (rating 1479 vs 1574).
- H2H favours Melbourne Victory NPL: 2-2-1.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Western United FC NPL | Melbourne Victory NPL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.5 | 2.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.6 | 2.9 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Western United FC NPL 1–2–2 Melbourne Victory NPL
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Western United FC NPL |
| 17/08/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 2-4 HT 2-2 | Western United FC NPL |
| 12/05/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Western United FC NPL | 4-4 HT 3-3 | Melbourne Victory NPL |
| 01/05/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 3 | Western United FC NPL | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory NPL |
| 27/06/21 Australia Victoria Premier League 3 | Western United FC NPL | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory NPL |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northcote City | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 16 | 39 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 24 | 33 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 29 | 30 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 23 | 29 |
| 6 | North Geelong | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 33 | 27 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 26 |
| 8 | Eltham Redbacks | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 33 | 25 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 36 | 25 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 34 | 23 |
| 11 | Langwarrin | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Western United FC NPL | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 43 | 22 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 14 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 18 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Western United FC NPL | Melbourne Victory NPL |
|---|---|---|
| Eltham Redbacks | 4-3 W | 3-3 D |
| Port Melbourne SC | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Manningham United Blues | 4-3 W | 4-0 W |
| Northcote City | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| FC Melbourne Srbija | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 2-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Melbourne Knights | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Brunswick City | 2-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory NPL (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Western United FC NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
3-1 | 4-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
Melbourne Victory NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 08/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 01/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/05 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Western United FC NPL vs Melbourne Victory NPL?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne Victory NPL win (52%). Probabilities: Western United FC NPL 28%, draw 20%, Melbourne Victory NPL 52%.
How many goals are expected in Western United FC NPL vs Melbourne Victory NPL?
The model expects 4.29 goals (Western United FC NPL 1.81 · Melbourne Victory NPL 2.48), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Western United FC NPL vs Melbourne Victory NPL?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.