Prediction: Northcote City vs Melbourne Knights
Expected goals: 2.81 (Northcote City 1.4 · Melbourne Knights 1.4). The model gives 37% home, 25% draw, 37% away. Under 3 goals (55%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Northcote City is 5-1-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Melbourne Knights 6-1-3 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Northcote City and 3 for Melbourne Knights, with 1 draw.
| Northcote City | Draw | Melbourne Knights | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | 38% | 24% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Knights (rating 1503 vs 1548).
- H2H favours Melbourne Knights: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 13.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Northcote City | Melbourne Knights | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6.8 | 4.2 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Northcote City 2–1–3 Melbourne Knights
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Melbourne Knights | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Northcote City |
| 20/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying | Northcote City | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Melbourne Knights |
| 27/06/23 Australia Victoria Cup | Northcote City | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Knights |
| 15/06/18 Australia Victoria Premier League | Melbourne Knights | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Northcote City |
| 12/03/18 Australia Victoria Premier League | Northcote City | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Knights |
| 17/12/17 Australia Friendlies | Northcote City | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Knights |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northcote City | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 39 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 16 | 38 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 19 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 26 | 36 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 30 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 29 |
| 6 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 21 | 29 |
| 7 | Eltham Redbacks | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 28 |
| 8 | North Geelong | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 34 | 28 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 38 | 26 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 45 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 41 | 23 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 42 | 22 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 36 | 15 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 43 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Northcote City | Melbourne Knights |
|---|---|---|
| FC Melbourne Srbija | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| North Geelong | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Langwarrin | 3-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Western United FC NPL | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Bulleen Lions | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Brunswick Juventus | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Melbourne Victory NPL | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Northcote City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
Melbourne Knights
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 01/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 01/05 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Northcote City vs Melbourne Knights?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Northcote City win (37%). Probabilities: Northcote City 37%, draw 25%, Melbourne Knights 37%.
How many goals are expected in Northcote City vs Melbourne Knights?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Northcote City 1.4 · Melbourne Knights 1.4), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Northcote City vs Melbourne Knights?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.