Prediction: Eltham Redbacks vs North Geelong
Expected goals: 4.18 (Eltham Redbacks 2.37 · North Geelong 1.81). The model gives 50% home, 21% draw, 29% away. Over 3.5 goals (55%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Recent form leaves Eltham Redbacks with 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses over 10 games; North Geelong has piled up 4-1-5 in the same span. In the last 3 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Eltham Redbacks and 2 for North Geelong.
| Eltham Redbacks | Draw | North Geelong | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 21% | 29% |
| Market | 50% | 21% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours North Geelong: 2-0-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Eltham Redbacks | North Geelong | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 2.5 | 1.8 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 1 | 1 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.4 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Eltham Redbacks 1–0–2 North Geelong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | North Geelong | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Eltham Redbacks |
| 05/07/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Eltham Redbacks | 0-1 HT 0-1 | North Geelong |
| 29/03/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | North Geelong | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Eltham Redbacks |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northcote City | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 39 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 16 | 38 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 19 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 26 | 36 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 30 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 29 |
| 6 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 21 | 29 |
| 7 | Eltham Redbacks | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 28 |
| 8 | North Geelong | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 34 | 28 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 38 | 26 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 45 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 41 | 23 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 42 | 22 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 36 | 15 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 43 | 10 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Eltham Redbacks | North Geelong |
|---|---|---|
| Langwarrin | 6-1 W | 2-4 L |
| Western United FC NPL | 3-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Brunswick City | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Bulleen Lions | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Brunswick Juventus | 1-2 L | 3-4 L |
| Melbourne Knights | 0-4 L | 1-2 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 2-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Port Melbourne SC | 8-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Manningham United Blues | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 6 L | 3 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: North Geelong (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eltham Redbacks
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 05/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 15/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
5-0 | 8-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
North Geelong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/06 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-3 | 2-4 | 11 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eltham Redbacks vs North Geelong?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Eltham Redbacks win (50%). Probabilities: Eltham Redbacks 50%, draw 21%, North Geelong 29%.
How many goals are expected in Eltham Redbacks vs North Geelong?
The model expects 4.18 goals (Eltham Redbacks 2.37 · North Geelong 1.81), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Eltham Redbacks vs North Geelong?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.