Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 13/07, 12:30
Prediction: Bulleen Lions vs Brunswick City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.45Total
Bulleen Lions2.19
Brunswick City1.26
1X2
Bulleen Lions
Draw
Brunswick City
Markets
Under 3.75 goals 56%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1Most likely total: 3 goals
Recent form · 10 last
Bulleen Lions
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Brunswick City
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bulleen Lions
2–2–2
Brunswick City
(6 last)
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bulleen Lions 1516 · Brunswick City 1470
| Bulleen Lions | Draw | Brunswick City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | 59% | 20% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Expected goals3.45Bulleen Lions 2.19 · Brunswick City 1.26
Over / Under 3.75Under 3.75 · 56%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bulleen Lions (rating 1516 vs 1470).
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bulleen Lions | Brunswick City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.4 | 2.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bulleen Lions 2–2–2 Brunswick City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Brunswick City | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Bulleen Lions |
| 20/06/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Brunswick City | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Bulleen Lions |
| 17/03/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Bulleen Lions | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Brunswick City |
| 08/07/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Bulleen Lions | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Brunswick City |
| 05/04/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Brunswick City | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Bulleen Lions |
| 15/07/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Brunswick City | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bulleen Lions |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northcote City | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 39 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 16 | 38 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 19 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 26 | 36 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 30 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 29 |
| 6 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 21 | 29 |
| 7 | Eltham Redbacks | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 28 |
| 8 | North Geelong | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 34 | 28 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 38 | 26 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 45 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 41 | 23 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 42 | 22 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 36 | 15 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 43 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bulleen Lions | Brunswick City |
|---|---|---|
| Brunswick Juventus | 5-1 W | 2-7 L |
| Melbourne Victory NPL | 2-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Eltham Redbacks | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Port Melbourne SC | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Manningham United Blues | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Northcote City | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| FC Melbourne Srbija | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Bulleen Lions (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bulleen Lions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 5-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 16/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 01/06 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 15/05 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Brunswick City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-3 | 2-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 22/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/06 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
3-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 29/05 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | Avondale Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bulleen Lions vs Brunswick City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bulleen Lions win (58%). Probabilities: Bulleen Lions 58%, draw 21%, Brunswick City 21%.
How many goals are expected in Bulleen Lions vs Brunswick City?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Bulleen Lions 2.19 · Brunswick City 1.26), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Bulleen Lions vs Brunswick City?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.