Tennis · ATP Paris · 08/11, 15:00
Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
25.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
4-6 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ben Shelton
1–3
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
(4 last)
- 09 Sept3-2 26-23W
- 01 Jun1-3 19-23L
- 21 Sept0-2 8-12L
- 10 Aug0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1575 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1639
| Ben Shelton | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (rating 1575 vs 1639).
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Ben Shelton 1–3 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (4).
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.4-14 | 13.1-9.4 |
| Aces | 14.1 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 2 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 77% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 38.7% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.4
Over 22.5: 72% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 28% · 1.83
H2H · Ben Shelton 1 – 3 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ben Shelton 1–3 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 US Open | 3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 01/06/25 French Open | 1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 21/09/24 Laver Cup | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/08/23 ATP Toronto | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Luca Van Assche ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/11 | Tommy Paul ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/11 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 03/11 | Cameron Norrie ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/10 | Jerome Kym ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 27/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 11/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 09/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/09 | Jakub Mensik Davis Cup |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Jiri Lehecka Davis Cup |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Casper Ruud ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/11 | Taylor Fritz ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 04/11 | Alex Michelsen ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/11 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 69% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.