Tennis · ATP Paris · 07/11, 17:00
Prediction: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Casper Ruud · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Prediction summary
Winner
Casper Ruud
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Casper Ruud
8-2 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Casper Ruud
2–6
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
(8 last)
- 11 Mar0-2 7-13L
- 29 Sept1-2 13-15L
- 11 Nov2-0 13-6W
- 02 Oct0-2 6-12L
- 18 Dec2-0 12-5W
- 11 Sept1-3 19-21L
- 03 Apr0-2 9-13L
- 09 Apr0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Casper Ruud 1572 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1652
| Casper Ruud | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (rating 1572 vs 1652).
- Casper Ruud dominates on serve: 10.3 aces and 51.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Casper Ruud 2–6 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (8).
Statistics
| Casper Ruud | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.1 | 13.2-9.6 |
| Aces | 10.3 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 2 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 75.4% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 50.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.7
Over 20.5: 61% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 39% · 1.90
H2H · Casper Ruud 2 – 6 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Casper Ruud 2–6 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/09/25 ATP Tokyo | 1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/11/24 ATP World Tour Finals | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 02/10/23 ATP Beijing | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/12/22 Mubadala World Tennis Championship | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/09/22 US Open | 1-3 | 19-21 | L |
| 03/04/22 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/04/21 ATP Marbella | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Casper Ruud
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Nuno Borges ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/11 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/11 | Rafael Jodar ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/11 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 26/10 | Dominic Stephan Stricker ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/10 | Learner Tien ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Taylor Fritz ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 04/11 | Alex Michelsen ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/11 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 72% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.