Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Tommy Paul
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Tommy Paul
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Tommy Paul
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
3-7 (W-L)
Tommy Paul
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ben Shelton
2–2
Tommy Paul
(4 last)
- 10 Feb0-2 6-12L
- 20 Oct2-0 13-9W
- 03 Sept3-1 22-17W
- 25 Jan1-3 20-24L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1524 · Tommy Paul 1565
| Ben Shelton | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tommy Paul (rating 1524 vs 1565).
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.4 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.2-15.4 | 12.6-9.6 |
| Aces | 13.4 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 75.8% | 79% |
| Break % | 37.2% | 32.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 25.5 · -1
Over 25.5: 43% · 1.83
Under 25.5: 57% · 1.83
H2H · Ben Shelton 2 – 2 Tommy Paul (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ben Shelton 2–2 Tommy Paul
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/24 ATP Dallas | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10/23 ATP Tokyo | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09/23 US Open | 3-1 | 22-17 | W |
| 25/01/23 Australian Open | 1-3 | 20-24 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 03/11 | Cameron Norrie ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/10 | Jerome Kym ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 27/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 11/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 09/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/09 | Jakub Mensik Davis Cup |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Jiri Lehecka Davis Cup |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 12/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Quentin Halys ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/11 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/11 | Holger Rune ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/10 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Tommy Paul?
Our model gives 55% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.