Prediction: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Casper Ruud
Team pages: Jan-Lennard Struff · Casper Ruud
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan-Lennard Struff
Casper Ruud
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jan-Lennard Struff
8-2 (W-L)
Casper Ruud
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jan-Lennard Struff
4–1
Casper Ruud
(5 last)
- 29 Sept0-2 9-13L
- 13 Apr2-0 13-7W
- 08 Jul2-0 12-8W
- 27 Aug3-0 18-10W
- 18 Apr2-0 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan-Lennard Struff 1591 · Casper Ruud 1560
| Jan-Lennard Struff | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jan-Lennard Struff dominates on serve: 12.9 aces and 46.6% break avg.
- Casper Ruud dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 44.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Jan-Lennard Struff 4–1 Casper Ruud (5).
Statistics
| Jan-Lennard Struff | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.8-11.9 | 13.6-10.6 |
| Aces | 12.9 | 9.3 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 82.8% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 46.6% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 52% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 48% · 1.80
H2H · Jan-Lennard Struff 4 – 1 Casper Ruud (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jan-Lennard Struff 4–1 Casper Ruud
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/23 ATP Beijing | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/04/23 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/07/20 Thiems Seven | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08/19 US Open | 3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 18/04/17 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 03/11 | Arthur Gea ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 30/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 28/10 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 23/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/10 | Gauthier Onclin ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Casper Ruud
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Rafael Jodar ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/11 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 26/10 | Dominic Stephan Stricker ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/10 | Learner Tien ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Francisco Cerundolo Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 19/09 | Fnu Nidunjianzan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan-Lennard Struff vs Casper Ruud?
Our model gives 55% to Casper Ruud, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.