Prediction: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Taylor Fritz · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Prediction summary
Winner
Taylor Fritz
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Taylor Fritz
6-4 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Taylor Fritz
1–7
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
(8 last)
- 26 Sept1-2 20-23L
- 11 Nov1-2 15-19L
- 16 Oct0-2 6-12L
- 30 Sept0-2 8-12L
- 21 Sept2-0 12-5W
- 11 Jul1-3 20-24L
- 22 Sept0-2 7-13L
- 31 Mar0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taylor Fritz 1568 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1637
| Taylor Fritz | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (rating 1568 vs 1637).
- Head-to-head: Taylor Fritz 1–7 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (8).
Statistics
| Taylor Fritz | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.3 | 13-9.2 |
| Aces | 13.2 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 80.5% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 36.4% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.4
Over 22.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 40% · 1.83
H2H · Taylor Fritz 1 – 7 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Taylor Fritz 1–7 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/26 Laver Cup | 1-2 | 20-23 | L |
| 11/11/25 ATP Finals | 1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 16/10/25 Six Kings Slam | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/09/25 ATP Tokyo | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/09/25 Laver Cup | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/07/25 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 20-24 | L |
| 22/09/24 Laver Cup | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/03/23 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taylor Fritz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Arthur Fils ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/11 | Alex Molcan ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 03/11 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 31/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Basel · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/10 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Alex Michelsen ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/11 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 66% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.