Prediction: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
Team pages: Lorenzo Musetti · Luca Van Assche
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Musetti
Luca Van Assche
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Luca Van Assche
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Musetti
1–1
Luca Van Assche
(2 last)
- 23 Oct2-1 19-17W
- 17 Jan2-3 19-27L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Musetti 1591 · Luca Van Assche 1513
| Lorenzo Musetti | Luca Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Musetti (rating 1591 vs 1513).
- Lorenzo Musetti is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Musetti | Luca Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-11.5 | 12.2-13 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 1 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 76.5% | 75.5% |
| Break % | 37.2% | 25.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.5
Over 22.5: 61% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.90
H2H · Lorenzo Musetti 1 – 1 Luca Van Assche (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Musetti 1–1 Luca Van Assche
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/26 ATP Lyon | 2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 17/01/24 Australian Open | 2-3 | 19-27 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Alexander Zverev ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/11 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 21/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
Luca Van Assche
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Learner Tien ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/11 | Mariano Navone ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/10 | Learner Tien ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 22/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 20/10 | Clement Tabur ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Denis Shapovalov US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 30/08 | Cameron Norrie US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche?
Our model gives 67% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.