Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
5-5 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Michelsen
0–1
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
(1 last)
- 01 Oct1-2 13-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1538 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1643
| Alex Michelsen | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (rating 1538 vs 1643).
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 41.9% break avg.
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alex Michelsen 0–1 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (1).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.1-13.7 | 13-9 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 5 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 77.1% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 51.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +3.8
Over 20.5: 75% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 25% · 1.90
H2H · Alex Michelsen 0 – 1 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Michelsen 0–1 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/26 ATP Tokyo | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 27/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/10 | David Goffin ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/10 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 06/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 74% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.