Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert
Team pages: Matteo Berrettini · Ugo Humbert
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Berrettini
Ugo Humbert
Estimated games
24.8Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Berrettini
4-6 (W-L)
Ugo Humbert
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Berrettini
3–2
Ugo Humbert
(5 last)
- 16 Oct0-2 9-13L
- 29 Aug3-0 18-8W
- 04 Jan2-0 13-10W
- 03 Sept3-0 19-14W
- 26 Oct0-2 3-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1503 · Ugo Humbert 1455
| Matteo Berrettini | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Berrettini (rating 1503 vs 1455).
- Head-to-head: Matteo Berrettini 3–2 Ugo Humbert (5).
- Note: Ugo Humbert makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-13.9 | 12.5-13.7 |
| Aces | 12.9 | 7 |
| Double faults | 2 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 78.3% | 76% |
| Break % | 27.9% | 37.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8 · Bet365 line 24.5
Over 24.5: 52% · 1.80
Under 24.5: 48% · 1.90
H2H · Matteo Berrettini 3 – 2 Ugo Humbert (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Berrettini 3–2 Ugo Humbert
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/25 ATP Stockholm | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/08/23 US Open | 3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 04/01/22 ATP Cup | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 03/09/20 US Open | 3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 26/10/17 Challenger Brest | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 30/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 03/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-22 | L |
| 31/08 | Stan Wawrinka US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
Ugo Humbert
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 28/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 09/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert?
Our model gives 52% to Matteo Berrettini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.